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Coach Fletcher

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2015-10-11T20:00:00.000Z 2015-10-11T20:00:00.000Z - NFL

455 Cleveland Browns
vs.
456 Baltimore Ravens

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

10/11/2015

NFL Money Lines

Ravens

30-33

-280

3

L

-840

Analysis

Coach Fletcher’s NFL 3 Pick Package

Sunday, October 11

10 am   Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

The Pick   3*   Baltimore Ravens   Money Line   -280  Greek

 

Two 1-3 teams battle in an early game at Baltimore on Sunday.  The Browns and the Ravens have both started poorly, but it appears that the Ravens are probably the better team.

Statistically, these teams aren’t too far apart.  Cleveland averages 21.2 points per game and the Ravens sit at 23.2.  The Browns are allowing 25.5 points per game and the Ravens are allowing 26.  Not much difference there.

One key to this game could well be the running attack.  With veteran receiver Steve Smith out, the Ravens will probably rely on the run and the match-up suggests that may happen.  Baltimore runs for 102.2 yards per game, nothing special to be sure.  But the Browns give up 141.5 yards per game on the ground which is good news for the Ravens. 

In the passing department, the teams mirror themselves once again.  The Browns average 255.8 per game and Ravens average 252.8.  Yep, just a 3 yard difference.  Once again the Brown defense is the worse of the two allowing 264.8 to the Ravens 242.2.  That’s not a big difference.  The Browns allow about 60 more total yards defensively than do the Ravens.

Stats are stats they aren’t very good without strength of schedule weighed into the equation.  In this case, it favors the Ravens.  The average power rating of Raven opponents is 22.5 while the Browns’ foes sit at 15.  This creates a sizeable class edge for the Ravens.

Cleveland has faced the Jets (L), Titans (W), Raiders (L) and Chargers (L).  Baltimore’s schedule looks like a roster of playoff teams sans the Raiders.  They tackled Denver (L), Raiders (L), Bengals (L) and the Roethlisberger-less Steelers (W).  The Ravens were favored in 3 of their first four while the Browns were favored twice at home.

Let’s look at the Raider game to compare these two squads.  The Browns lost to the Raiders at home 27-20 as 3.5 point home favorites.  Baltimore lost to the Raiders 37-33 in Oakland as 6 point chalk.

Cleveland gained 39 yards on the ground in 14 carries against Oakland.  The Ravens gained 109 in 25 carries.  Cleveland was 28-49 in the air for 316 yards.  The Ravens were 32-45 for 384 yards. 

So Cleveland gained 355 yards against the Raiders at home and the Ravens gained 493 yards against the Raiders as visitors.  Cleveland gave up 469 yards of offense to the Raiders while the Baltimore team allowed 448.  Both teams turned the ball over twice and gained one back from the Raiders.

Obviously handicapping is not as easy as simply comparing teams with common opponents. But it helps, especially early in the season, to get a better look at a team.

Take the run game.  Cleveland has gained 359 yards in 93 carries for a 3.86 average.  The Ravens have gained 409 yards on 105 carries for a 3.89 average.  Again, these teams are very close.  But Justin Forsett suddenly broke out of the doldrums to gain 150 yards in 27 carries against the Steelers last week.  I expect him to get a heavy load of carries against Cleveland’s lax rush defense.  The Browns have allowed 566 on the ground in 117 carries for a 4.83 average.  Being able to run for that kind of yardage makes it tough to win, especially if the Ravens choose to exploit that weakness and I believe they will.  The Ravens have allowed 419 yards on the ground in 108 carries, that’s 3.87 per carry.  They have also held Denver, Oakland and Cincinnati to under 100 yards. 

With Smith out and injuries still bothering Crocket Gilmore (TE), the Ravens traded for Chris Givens to help out.  They also have first round pick Breshad Perriman who has yet to play.

Forsett isn’t facing the Browns for the first time either.  Last year in two games against them Forsett averaged 6.5 yards per carry.  He gained 119 in 17 carries in December’s 20-10. 

Baltimore has also owned this series.  While the Browns are competitive ATS, straight up they stink.  The ravens have won 13 of the last 14 games against the Browns.  They are 24-8 all time.  They have gained 100 or more yards rushing in all but 4 of those games.  The Browns are ranked last defensively in the NFL and that’s music to the ears of the beleaguered Ravens.  Joe Flacco is also 13-1 against the Browns and has thrown 18 TDs against 7 picks. 

I think the Ravens will try to run the ball down the throat of the Browns and probably succeed.  Flacco will pick his time to throw and probably enjoy similar success.  I don’t see Baltimore losing this one at home.  I’m taking the Ravens.

The Pick   3*   Baltimore   Money Line   -280   Greek

Pick Creation Time:
10/09/2015 12:20 PM
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