Coach Fletcher’s NFL
3 Pick Package
Sunday, October 11
10 am Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
The Pick 3*
Baltimore Ravens Money Line -280
Greek
Two 1-3 teams battle in an early game at Baltimore on
Sunday. The Browns and the Ravens have
both started poorly, but it appears that the Ravens are probably the better
team.
Statistically, these teams aren’t too far apart. Cleveland averages 21.2 points per game and
the Ravens sit at 23.2. The Browns are
allowing 25.5 points per game and the Ravens are allowing 26. Not much difference there.
One key to this game could well be the running attack. With veteran receiver Steve Smith out, the
Ravens will probably rely on the run and the match-up suggests that may
happen. Baltimore runs for 102.2 yards
per game, nothing special to be sure.
But the Browns give up 141.5 yards per game on the ground which is good
news for the Ravens.
In the passing department, the teams mirror themselves once
again. The Browns average 255.8 per game
and Ravens average 252.8. Yep, just a 3
yard difference. Once again the Brown
defense is the worse of the two allowing 264.8 to the Ravens 242.2. That’s not a big difference. The Browns allow about 60 more total yards
defensively than do the Ravens.
Stats are stats they aren’t very good without strength of
schedule weighed into the equation. In
this case, it favors the Ravens. The
average power rating of Raven opponents is 22.5 while the Browns’ foes sit at
15. This creates a sizeable class edge
for the Ravens.
Cleveland has faced the Jets (L), Titans (W), Raiders (L)
and Chargers (L). Baltimore’s schedule
looks like a roster of playoff teams sans the Raiders. They tackled Denver (L), Raiders (L), Bengals
(L) and the Roethlisberger-less Steelers (W).
The Ravens were favored in 3 of their first four while the Browns were
favored twice at home.
Let’s look at the Raider game to compare these two
squads. The Browns lost to the Raiders
at home 27-20 as 3.5 point home favorites.
Baltimore lost to the Raiders 37-33 in Oakland as 6 point chalk.
Cleveland gained 39 yards on the ground in 14 carries
against Oakland. The Ravens gained 109 in
25 carries. Cleveland was 28-49 in the
air for 316 yards. The Ravens were 32-45
for 384 yards.
So Cleveland gained 355 yards against the Raiders at home
and the Ravens gained 493 yards against the Raiders as visitors. Cleveland gave up 469 yards of offense to the
Raiders while the Baltimore team allowed 448.
Both teams turned the ball over twice and gained one back from the
Raiders.
Obviously handicapping is not as easy as simply comparing teams
with common opponents. But it helps, especially early in the season, to get a
better look at a team.
Take the run game.
Cleveland has gained 359 yards in 93 carries for a 3.86 average. The Ravens have gained 409 yards on 105
carries for a 3.89 average. Again, these
teams are very close. But Justin Forsett
suddenly broke out of the doldrums to gain 150 yards in 27 carries against the
Steelers last week. I expect him to get
a heavy load of carries against Cleveland’s lax rush defense. The Browns have allowed 566 on the ground in
117 carries for a 4.83 average. Being
able to run for that kind of yardage makes it tough to win, especially if the
Ravens choose to exploit that weakness and I believe they will. The Ravens have allowed 419 yards on the
ground in 108 carries, that’s 3.87 per carry.
They have also held Denver, Oakland and Cincinnati to under 100
yards.
With Smith out and injuries still bothering Crocket Gilmore
(TE), the Ravens traded for Chris Givens to help out. They also have first round pick Breshad
Perriman who has yet to play.
Forsett isn’t facing the Browns for the first time
either. Last year in two games against
them Forsett averaged 6.5 yards per carry.
He gained 119 in 17 carries in December’s 20-10.
Baltimore has also owned this series. While the Browns are competitive ATS,
straight up they stink. The ravens have
won 13 of the last 14 games against the Browns.
They are 24-8 all time. They have
gained 100 or more yards rushing in all but 4 of those games. The Browns are ranked last defensively in the
NFL and that’s music to the ears of the beleaguered Ravens. Joe Flacco is also 13-1 against the Browns and
has thrown 18 TDs against 7 picks.
I think the Ravens will try to run the ball down the throat
of the Browns and probably succeed.
Flacco will pick his time to throw and probably enjoy similar
success. I don’t see Baltimore losing
this one at home. I’m taking the Ravens.
The Pick 3*
Baltimore Money Line -280
Greek