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Coach Fletcher

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2015-10-11T05:20:00.000Z 2015-10-11T05:20:00.000Z - College Football

379 California Bears
vs.
380 Utah U Running Utes

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

10/10/2015

CFB Sides

Utah U

30-24

-7-125

2

L

-250

Analysis

Coach Fletcher’s Saturday CFB 5 Pack

Saturday, October 10

7 pm   California at #380 Utah

The Pick   2*   Utah   -7   -125   Buy Half   William Hill

 

Two undefeated teams meet in a Pac 12 showdown in Utah.  The 5-0 California Bears are visiting the 4-0 Utah Utes.

These two teams have many similarities besides being unbeaten.  Most of the similarities are on defense because few teams can match Cal’s offensive stats.  Defensively, it appears to be a standoff.  The Bears allow 137.2 yards per game on the ground and 249.6 in the air.  The Utes allow 134.8 on the ground and 238.5 in the air.  So Utah’s defense allows about 13 yards per game less than the Bears.

Offensively it’s a different story, but part of that may be due to the strength of schedule which tends to really screw up numbers.  Cal averages 169 yards on the ground and the Utes average a very respectable 204.5.  But the big difference is in the passing game.  The Bears go for 358.4 yards per game in the air while Utah hits 189.

Like I said, the schedule maker has a lot to do with that.  In game 1 the Bears threw for 471 yards against Grambling en route to a 73-14 win as 45 point favorites.  They went off for 321 against San Diego State winning that one 35-7 as 13 point favorites. 

The Bears found their running game against the no defense Texas Longhorns and ran for 280 and passed for 268.  Cal barely beat the Longhorns 45-44 in that one.  I can tell you I’m immediately suspicious of any team that gives up 44 points to Texas.

Games 4 and 5 were against the Washington teams.  Cal snuck by both of them but not by much.  They beat Washington 30-24 and Washington State 34-28.  They threw for a combined 732 yards in that pair while running for 218.  Washington State did throw for 389 against the Bears and their 4 turnovers may have made the difference.

So in their last 3 games against decent opponents the Bears have allowed 96 points – an average of 32 points per game. When you give up that many points your margin of error shrinks.

And what about the Utes?  Believe it or not I have heard people claim that this is the best team in the country!  I won’t go that far, but I think they are the best team in this game.

All the Utes have done so far is beat Michigan 24-17 and Oregon, 62-20.  I know this is a different Oregon team, but they outscored them by 42 points.  Utah has a reasonably balanced offense though they prefer to control the game on the ground.  The Utes ran for 129 yards in 37 carries against Michigan, which isn’t all that much.  But they got 195 in 44 carries against a decent Utah State squad and 221 in 48 carries against a poor Fresno State team.  Oregon ran for 273 in 42 carries (6.5 ypc) and threw for another 257 against the Ducks. 

Both are opportunistic teams with the Bears turning it over 10 times but grabbing 18 from the foes.  Utah has committed only 4 turnovers and has taken away 11.

Strength of schedule has to be looked here.  Power ratings of Cal’s opponents is 28 while Utah foes check in at 39.  That’s a sizeable difference.  Wins over any of Cal’s opponents are questionable, with the exception of Washington where they were 1 point dogs and won 30-24 grabbing 5 turnovers from the Huskies.  Utah, on the other hand, can be commended for beating Michigan even though favored, because Michigan has turned out to be a very good team.  It’s really too early to assess Oregon, but a 62-20 win AT Oregon is worth some credit.

The Bears are ranked 23rd and the Utes are 5th.  ESPN’s Game Day will be there for a visit and I’m not sure if that will affect either team.  Sonny Dykes of the Bears is a little more outgoing than Kyle Whittingham of the Utes, but it shouldn’t make a difference to either team.

Cal’s offense is averaging 43.4 points per game but the Utah defense has not allowed more than 24 points in any game.  The same can’t be said of the Cal defense which allows an average of 23.4 points per game.

I’m taking Utah to win this one. 

The Pick   2*   Utah   -7   -125   Buy Half   William Hill

 

Pick Creation Time:
10/08/2015 6:10 PM
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