Coach Fletcher’s Saturday CFB 5 Pack

Saturday, Oct 10

5 pm   Miami, Florida at Florida State

The Pick   #372   3*    Florida State   Money Line   -330   Pinnacle

Despite the prevailing notion that this would be a down year or at best a rebuilding year for the Seminoles, Florida State has come out 4-0.  They take on the Miami Hurricanes, 3-1, at Florida State Saturday evening.

What has been the key to the Seminole season?  It’s been the defense.  Florida State is only given up 11.5 points per game.  Miami is giving up 21.8 points per game.  And what about that offense now that Famous Jameis is throwing interceptions for the Bucs?  The Seminoles are averaging 32.8 points per contest.  Miami is averaging 37.

Schedule-wise, the Seminoles have had a tougher go of it.  Their foes power rating is 29.8 to Miami’s opponents at 24.2.  So this isn’t some trick or smoke and mirrors.  Florida State is the real deal.

They haven’t been overly impressive if impressive at all score-wise.  Their best win was probably a 14-0 shutout of Boston College at Boston College.  They also beat Wake Forest at Wake Forest just 24-16 as a 19 point favorite.  Earlier wins can probably be discounted since they came as 28 and 27.5 point favorites in beating Texas State 59-16 and S. Florida 34-14.  Three of the 4 games have gone under, including the last 3. 

Florida State hasn’t demonstrated a lot of offense against the top teams they have played.  They only had 217 total yards against BC, but BC had just 195.  They were outgained by Wake 357-329.  But this is a disciplined team with only 1 turnover on the season.  The defense has snagged 6. 

Miami hasn’t exactly made front page news either unless like me you are wondering when and if the NCAA will sanction them.  Like the Seminoles they opened against 2 patsies beating Bethune Cookman 45-0 as 38 point chalk then beating Florida Atlantic, 44-20, as 17.5 point favorites.  The Canes used a balanced attack against Bethune then amped up the offense to 526 total yards against Fla Atlantic.  Bethune couldn’t even get 100 total yards but Florida Atlantic gained 223 on the ground against the Canes and 166 in the air.

When Miami stepped up in class they barely beat Nebraska, 35=6-33 and they lost to Cincinnati, 34-23.  The Canes passed for 379 against the Huskers but the Huskers gained 309 in the air themselves. Against Cincy, the Canes ran for 146 and threw for 281.  Cincy ran for 167 and threw for 279.  The Cane run defense has been chewed up in their last 3 games to the tune of 553 yards in 99 carries.  You can do the math pretty easy on that one. 

A weak rushing defense is good news for a fairly balanced Seminole offensive machine.  They have run the ball well, except against Boston College, but that is BC’s strength and the field was wet.  Other than that they have rushed for 671 yards in almost 6 yards per carry if you toss out the BC game where they ran for 98 yards on 33 carries.  Even with that, the Seminoles are averaging 5.8 a pop.  The Noles passed for just 321 in their games with Wake and BC and had 0 turnovers.  This is a team that seems to play to their best each and every game.

Florida State is 14-10 SU versus Miami since 1992.  They are 2-0 SU against the Canes in the last 3 years.  In games played at home they are 7-4 straight up versus the Canes since 1992 and 1-0 at home in the last 3 years.  These games have trended to the under.

Florida State is not only 4-0 but 3-1 in the big 4 when compared to the Canes.  Florida State gains more yards on the ground but gains less in the air.  Florida State allows fewer yards on the ground and in the air.

One problem Florida could face is the health of running back Darius Cook.  He is questionable but the latest reports indicate he will go on Saturday.  Cook strained his hamstring in the first quarter against Wake last week.  Cook leads the ACC in rushing with 570 yards and 8 of his 55 carries have gone 20 or more.  Cook has also scored 6 of Florida State’s 16 TDs. 

The status of Cook is crucial because in this series the team that has rushed for the most yards has won 20 of 28.  All indications I have received have been positive for Cook’s status.  But anything can happen with a hamstring. 

Florida State has won the last 5 in this series.  Coach Al Golden is 0-4.  Miami has lost 7 of their last 9 road contests.  Miami has also gone an amazing 0-12 during Golden’s tenure against teams that finished ranked.  It’s safe to say that barring unforeseen circumstances, the number 12 Seminoles will be in the top 25 at the end of the season.  There is a lot of pressure on Golden to win this one and that can’t help. Miami is one of the worst teams in the country on third down completing just 24.5 percent.

Coach’s Conclusion

I don’t see a blow out here but I see a Seminole victory.  Golden’s team has a tough time winning on the road and Florida State isn’t your average road game.  They have the potential to have a smothering defense and if Cook is healthy, they can definitely control this game on the ground.  I’m taking Florida State.

The Pick   3*   Florida State   Money Line   -330   Pinnacle