1* Take Philadelphia
(#908)
Let’s take the starting pitching matchup out of the equation
for just a moment, and compare these two teams.
The Phillies might still have the
worst record in MLB, but they’ve been the single hottest team in baseball (and
by far, the single most profitable team to support) since the All Star
Break. Every season-long power rating
number for the Phillies is obsolete, leaving enormous value to support the Phillies
moving forward, as long as they continue to play with passion and pride.
These two quotes have ‘bet-on’ written all over them. Interim manager Pete Mackanin: “It looks to me like everybody feels we're going to score
runs. They look like they feel they're going to win. We're on a pretty good
roll right now." First baseman Ryan
Howard: “"We basically just came out the second half with a brand-new
mind-set. The first half was the first half. We left it there and came out just
playing loose, having fun."
Compare that mentality with what we are seeing from Atlanta,
outscored 25-6 in the first three games of this series. The Braves are now 1-13 in their last 14 on
the highway, scoring three runs or less in 13 of those 14 ballgames. Throw in an MLB worst 11-20 mark in day games
and a grand total of only seven wins all year against opposing southpaw
starters (second fewest in baseball) and you can clearly see the enormous
disparity between these two teams as of today, a disparity that is most
assuredly not reflected in the underdog price available for Phillies
supporters.
So there MUST be a huge pitching edge for the Braves today
to merit this line, right? WRONG! The Braves Julio Teheran has as sharp a
home/road dichotomy as you can find in MLB this season; dominant in Atlanta
(5-1 with a 2.37 ERA) while routinely getting hammered on the highway (1-5 with
a 7.24 ERA). He’s had real problems with
the gopher ball, allowing 15 home runs in just 59.2 innings of work on the
road; bad news against the hot Phillies lineup in the cozy, home run friendly
confines of Citizens Bank Ballpark.
Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez: “I don't know if it's (Teheran’s struggles on the road)
mental, but the numbers sure show it. We can't pick and choose when he pitches.
You got a five-man rotation and we're on a 10-day road trip. Send him home for
the 10 days? We got to get through it."
Phillies starter Adam Morgan threw seven innings of two run
ball against the Braves in his lone previous start against them, and he’s
allowed three runs or less in five of his six previous big league starts this
year. Behind him, the Phillies bullpen
is in much better current form than the Braves – there’s no real edge for
Atlanta in the latter stages either.
Wrong team favored, plain and simple.
Take the Phillies..