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Pro Pick From
Dr. Ed Meyer

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(At current odds)

2014-10-19T23:25:00.000Z 2014-10-19T23:25:00.000Z - NFL

473 Arizona Cardinals
vs.
474 Oakland Raiders

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

10/19/2014

NFL Sides

Cardinals

24-13

-3½

2

W

200

Analysis

The Raiders, with interim coach Tony Sparano, took advantage of a Chargers’ team that was looking ahead to divisional rivals Kansas City and Denver and nearly got the upset as a 7-point home dog to San Diego.  It was pretty clear that the Chargers simply did not take the Raiders seriously.  When the game was on the line, the Chargers marched down the field in the fourth quarter to take the lead and then intercepted Carr to end the final threat.  The Cardinals should take the Raiders very seriously.  The Cardinals are a very nice 10-0-1 vs ANY team with fewer wins on the season, as long as they are not a TD-plus underdog.  The SDQL text is:

team=Cardinals and wins - o:wins >0 and line<7 and season >= 2013

This stellar performance vs lesser teams is the direct result of Arians becoming the head coach in 2013.  Under Whisenhunt (2007-2012), the Cardinals were 11-21-1 ATS vs a team with fewer wins on the season.   Since Bruce Arians took over in 2013, Arizona is 10-0-1 ATS.  Clearly, Arians focuses on winning the games they are supposed to win.  The fact that the Cardinals’ only loss this season was in Denver, actually supports this theory.

Also, Arizona is 6-0 ATS after a win in which Larry Fitzgerald had at least 5 receptions, covering by an average of 12.42 ppg.  The SDQL text for this one is:

5<=Cardinals:Larry Fitzgerald:p:receptions and p:W and season >= 2013

Note that this also coincides with Arians taking over the reins in Arizona.

McFadden did well against the Chargers’ number one rushing defense last week, accumulating 80 yards rushing while averaging 5.7 yards per carry.  However, Oakland is 0-7 ATS after any home game in which McFadden ran for more than 75 yards.  The SDQL text is:

Raiders:Darren McFadden:p:rushing yards >75 and p:H and date>=20101121

Note that the Raiders have lost these seven games by an average of 19.3 ppg and failed to cover by an average of 12.9 ppg.  In each of their last five, they lost by more than ten points.

Oakland simply does not match up well with the Cardinals.  Arizona’s rushing defense is fifth in the league at 3.48 yards per carry allowed, yet they allow 66.5 percent completions, which is 25th in the league.  The Raiders are 0-10 ATS as a dog vs any team that had allowed less than five yards per carry and a completion percentage of more than 65% season-to-date.  Here is the SDQL text:

team=Raiders and D and oS(o:COMP)/oS(o:passes)>0.65 and oS(o:RY)/oS(o:rushes) < 5 and date>=20081201 

The Cardinals should come to play and that should be enough.

MTi’s FORECAST: Arizona 31 OAKLAND 23

Pick Creation Time:
10/18/2014 2:34 PM
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