For the first official football play of the season, I’m going with

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS –3.5 (-105)over The Giants

The Giants deserve to lose. They left New York for the swamp in N.J. and became the Swamp Things: First Anti-Heroes From New Jersey. That alone is reason for them to lose. The Giants will not turn things around in Kansas City. Exect the drop to 0-4, and KC to continue their winning streak and be 4-0 when today is over.

This line was up at –4 ½, but has not dropped back to –3 ½. Don’t be surprised if the same guys who manipulated it down to 3 ½ come back in and send it up to 4 again while sucking in everybody else. Line moves don’t necessarily indicate the right side, and when they do, even the wiseguys don’t win more 58-59% of the time, and that’s before the line move. After the line move, the results are much worse. Don’t forget, the level to which the line moves, is the level at which the wise guys WON’T play te side.

The move from –4.5 down to –3.5 gives you an extra 2.8% edge. That may not sound lime much, but it’s more edge than what bought your bookmaker his fancy car. You can, however, stay on the Chiefs at any line you see.

The advantage in this game lies in the comparative strength of the offensive and defensive lines, and in turnovers. . KC gets a huge 5 sacks per game, to only 1 for the Giants. The Chiefs have not had an interception yet this season, and have averaged only .3 fumbles per game compared to 1.3 for the Giants.

I’m calling for KC to cover the spread by double digits.

It’s early in the season, though, and the statistical back up is not what I would like for a big play. If the numbers came out like this in 3-4 weeks, this would be a top play. For now, however, for a normal $100 per unit player, let’s make it $147 to win $140 on KC –3.5.