Thursday night major league baseball and I will have a Free Pick in the game between the Boston Red Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays, which will be played at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario. First pitch is scheduled for a 7:05 PM (Eastern) start time and the game will be televised locally.
Betting Odds
Red Sox +133
Blue Jays -143
Over/ Under: 9.5 U -120
This is game 4 of a 4 game series between these American League East foes. The Sox took the first two games of this series with some solid pitching, but that was not the case in game 3 yesterday as the Blue Jays pounded out 16 hits on their way to an 11-2 win. The Sox continue to patrol the bottom of the AL East standings, while the Blue Jays have now moved to within a game of the lead in the division. The Red Sox rank 20th in scoring (4.04 rpg), while on the mound they are 28th in ERA (4.45). Toronto ranks 1st in scoring (5.44 rpg), while on the mound they are 22nd in ERA (4.06).
Trend for this game include: The Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game, but just 7-18 in their last 25 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 7-21 in their last 28 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Blue Jays have gone 10-2 in their last 12 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game and 15-6 in their last 21 games as a home favorite, but just 1-5 in their last 6 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.
Getting the ball for Boston tonight will be Wade Miley, who is 7-7 with a 4.38 ERA in 15 starts this year, while on the road he has gone 3-5 with a 4.66 ERA. Wade is 0-2 with a 10.57 ERA in 2 career starts vs the Blue Jays.
Toeing the rubber for the Blue Jays tonight will be Matt Boyd, who is making just his second career start. Last week was his first start and he lost 4-0 to Texas, allowing 4 ERs on 9 hits in 6.2 innings of work.
Pick: I will look at the Blue Jays in this game as look want to gain a split in this series. Wade Miley has pitched better of late, but still he has struggled on the road with a 4.66 ERA. Wade is also 0-2 with a 10.57 ERA vs the Jays in his career. Speaking of the Jays they have hit .300 vs southpaws on the year overall, while at home they have hit .306 vs them. Matt Boyd did have a rough opening start vs the Rangers, but I feel he will have much better success vs this poor hitting Sox team. The Sox have averaged just 3 rpg in their last 10 games and 3.67 rpg on the road, while the Jays have averaged 5.65 rpg at home. I expect a nice win from the Jays in this one.
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Deflategate, Tom Brady, and a Patriots Betting Update
After a glowing appeal in front of the NFL suits, New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady may not be serving all four games of his Deflategate suspension. Pro bettors Steve Fezzik and Scott Spreitzer talk about the likelihood Brady's punishment is reduced and how sports bettors can take advantage of this uncertain situation. Fezzik really likes taking +2.5 on the Patriots when they face the Dallas Cowboys in Texas during Week 5. The line is priced with the expectation Brady is out, but with him in, this is a great spot to bet before the line moves too much.