Game 1 of the NBA Finals takes place tonight and I will have a free pick in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Golden State Warriors, which will take place at Oracle Arena in Oakland, California. The game has a start time of 9:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ABC. Current Vegas betting odds have the Warriors listed as 6 point favorites, while the total is set at 202.5.
Analysis: The Cleveland Cavaliers were at one point 19-20 on the year and many were questioning whether this team had what it takes to win the title this year. Well now they are in the NBA Finals after sweeping the Celtics, winning in 6 games over the Bulls and then sweeping the Hawks. This team is playing well, but they are beat up and taking on Eastern Conference teams in the playoffs is a lot different than facing the Warriors. Cleveland has gone 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. the Western Conference, but 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Cavaliers have been a solid offensive team on the road this year, scoring 101.8 ppg on 44.4% shooting overall and 34.7% shooting from long range. Defensively on the road the Cavs have allowed 99.4 ppg on 46.2% shooting overall and 32.2% shooting from long range.
The Warriors have been the best team in the NBA and took out the Pelicans in 4 games, before having a 6 game battle with the Memphis Grizzlies in round 2 and then finishing off the Rockets in 5 games.The Warriors had a couple of scary injuries to Thompson and Curry in their battle with Houston, but both will be ready for this series. The Warriors have gone an impressive 46-3 at home this year, which includes a 112-94 over the Cavs. Golden State has gone 20-8-2 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, but just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Warriors have scored 111.2 ppg on 49.0% shooting overall and 40.5% from long range at home this year. Defensively they have been decent at home as they have allowed just 97.7 ppg on 43.0% shooting overall and 33.6% shooting from long range.
Pick: Both games were pretty high scoring during the regular season, but I don't see this one being that way. The Warriors have really locked it down at the defensive end of the floor for much of the playoffs as they have allowed just 95.3 ppg (Regulation) in the playoffs thus far, which includes allowing just 92.6 ppg in 8 games at home. The Cavaliers have really played good defense as well in the post season as they have allowed just 92.1 ppg (Regulation) in the playoffs so far. Both teams are playing excellent defense right now and both have slowed the ace for the most part, plus I expect a bunch of rust from both of these offenses. Game 1 should really be a feeling out process for both teams, especially off the long layoff and with the way both teams have played defense in the playoffs i just can't see 200+ points scored here.
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Home Court Advantage and the 2015 NBA Finals
Pro bettors Teddy Covers and Steve Fezzik clash over the value of home court in the 2015 NBA Finals. Fezzik thinks the Warriors are so far above the rest of the league at home with a +13 point differential over the competition as Oracle, that their home court advantage can't be overrated. Teddy, on the other hand, thinks Golden State are not beating the spread at home in the postseason. Fezzik says Golden State had bad spots early in the playoffs, but this series finale is a great spot for them to succeed.