Major league baseball on Saturday night and I will have a Free Pick in the game between the Boston Red Sox and the Texas Rangers, which will be played at Rangers Ballpark in Texas. First pitch is scheduled for a 7:15 PM (Eastern) start time and the game will be televised on FOX.
Betting Odds
Red Sox -126
Rangers +116
Over/ Under: 9 U -115
This is game 3 of a 4 game series between these American League foes. The teams have split the first two games of this series, with the Sox taking game 1, while the Rangers won game 2 last night. Boston is in last place in the AL East, but they are just 3 games behind the Yanks. Texas is in 4th place in the AL West, 6 games behind Houston. The Red Sox rank 21st in the league in scoring (3.92 rpg), while on the mound they are 27th in ERA (4.54). The Rangers rank 7th in scoring (4.51 rpg), while on the mound they are 26th in ERA (4.34).
Trends for this game include: Boston has gone 5-1 in their last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game, but just 3-9 in their last 12 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Rangers have gone 6-1 in their last 7 vs. the American League East, but just 17-46 in their last 63 games as a home underdog and 14-43 in their last 57 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Getting the ball for the Red Sox tonight will be Wade Miley, who is 4-4 with a 4.47 ERA overall, but he has been solid of late posting a 3-0 mark and a 1.25 ERA in his last 3 starts. on the road he is 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA. Wade has 2 career starts vs the Rangers and he is 1-1 with a 1.84 ERA in those starts.
Getting the ball for the Rangers tonight will be Chi Chi Rodriguez, who will be making his first ever Major League start. Ch Chi struggled at AAA Round Rock this year, going 3-5 with a 4.15 ERA in 8 starts. In his Minor League career he is 15-15 with a 3.17 ERA in 47 starts.
Pick: Going with the Sox in this one. The Rangers have been hot of late, but their overall numbers are indicating that they are ready for a fall, while the Sx have really been underachieving this year. Wade Miley has been pitching well of late as he is 3-0 with a 1.25 ERA in his last 3 starts, while Texas will be sending out a starter that has no MLB experience and that really struggled in AAA this year. Look for Boston to take this one.
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MLB Pitching Stats: DBF, Difficulty of Batters Faced
Pro handicappers Teddy Covers and Steve Fezzik talk about the difference between lazy stats and legit stats, telling you what you need to know about DBF or Difficulty of Batters Faced. This stat is a favorite among sabremetrics followers, who prefer this over stats looking at how a pitcher does versus a team when the team's rotation is constantly changing. Teddy sees the value in DBF, while Fezzik thinks some of the worst DBF performers like AJ Burnett are actually some of the best pitchers in baseball.