Sunday afternoon baseball and I will have a Free Pick in the game between the LA Angels and the Boston Red Sox, which will be played at Fenway Park in Boston. First pitch is scheduled for a 1:35 PM (Eastern) start time and the game will be televised locally.

Betting Odds

Angels                  +104
Red Sox                -114

Over/ Under: 9 U -120

This is game 3 of a 3 game series between these American League foes. The Angels took game 1 in a rout and the Red Sox returned the favor yesterday with an 8-3 win. The Angels The Angels are now 22-21 on the year and 5.5 games behind the Houston Astros in the AL West. The Red Sox are now 20-23 on the year and are in 4th place in the AL East, but just 3.5 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays. The Angels rank 24th in the league in scoring (3.86 rpg), while on the mound they are 10th in ERA (3.67). The Red Sox rank 20th in scoring (3.95 rpg), while on the mound they are 28th in ERA (4.57). 

Trends for this game include: The Angels are 25-12 in their last 37 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and 37-14 in their last 51 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5, but just 1-9 in their last 10 Sunday games. The Red Sox have gone 8-17 in their last 25 during game 3 of a series, 2-8 in their last 10 home games and 7-20 in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. 

Getting the ball for the Angels today will be Hector Santiago, who has pitched well this year, going 3-2 with a 2.25 ERA on the year overall, while in 3 road starts he is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA. In 3 starts vs the Sox in his career, Hector has gone 0-2 with a 3.45 ERA.

Getting the ball for the Red Sox today will be Wade Miley, who is 3-4 with a 5.10 ERA in 8 starts overall, while at home he has gone 1-2 with a 6.61 ERA in 3 starts. Wade has never faced the Halos.         

Pick: Im going to go with the Under in this game. There have been a ton of runs scored in the first two games of this series, but I see the pitching getting the upper hand in this one. Hector Santiago has been excellent this year overall and has allowed 1 ER or less in 6 of his last 7 starts. His ERA in his last 3 starts is 0.93, while his ERA on the road is 2.84. He will be facing a Red Sox team that has hit just .186 vs lefties at home this year. I can't see the Red Sox getting many runs here. For the Sox they are sending out Wade Miley, who has pitched better of late as he has a 2.75 ERA in his last 3 starts and the Halos are not a really good hitting team overall, especially on the road where they are hitting just .229 for the year. The Under is 16-5 in the Sox last 21 games vs a left handed starter and I see that trend continuing here.  

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