Sunday night baseball and I will have a Free Pick in the game between the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees, which will be played at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for an 8:05 PM (Eastern) start time and the game will be televised on ESPN.
Betting Odds
New York +128
Boston -138
Over/ Under: 9 U -125
This is game 3 of this 3 game set between these heated rivals. The Yanks have taken the first two of the series and have now won 5 of their last 6 overall to move to 15-9 overall on the year. Boston comes in struggling as they have lost 7 of their last 10 games to fall to 12-12 on the year. Boston is 8th in the league in scoring at 4.88 rpg and 29th in ERA at 4.92. For the Yanks they are 9th in scoring at 4.83 rpg, while they are 6th in ERA, which is at 3.13.
A look at some tends for this game show us that the Yanks are 15-6 in their last 21 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 12-5 in their last 17 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5, but just 16-33 in their last 49 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Red Sox have gone 11-4 in their last 15 games following a loss and 6-1 in Joe Kelly's last 7 starts, but just 3-8 in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Getting the ball tonight for the Yankees will be Adam Warren, who is 1-1 with a 4.35 ERA in 4 starts this year. Adam faced the Sox once this year and allowed just 1 ER in 5.1 innings of an 8-4 loss. dam has spent most of his you career in the pen and is 2-1 with a high 5.23 ERA in 7 career starts.
Getting the ball tonight for the Red Sox will be Joe Kelly, who is 1-0 with a 4.94 ERA in 4 starts this year. Joe has faced the Yanks 3 times and is 3-0 with a 3.43 ERA in those starts. This year he faced them once and allowed 1 ER in 7 innings of an 8-4 win. He beat Warren on that day.
Pick: Going with the Red Sox to avoid the sweep here. Kelly already beat Warren once this year, so I expect him to go out there with some confidence. Warren has a winning record as a starter, but a very high 5.23 ERA in those starts. I see this Boston offense getting after him tonight and put up some runs. The Yanks offense has been solid but Joe Kelly is not a bad pitcher and he shut down the Yanks earlier in the year. He can do it again as the Sox get a much needed win here.
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