It's on to the NCAA Tournament's Final Four and I will have Free Pick in the game between the Wisconsin Badgers and the Kentucky Wildcats, which will take place at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana on Saturday, April 4. The game has a start time of 8:49 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on TBS. Current Vegas betting odds have the Wildcats listed as 5 point favorites, while the total is set at 131.
Analysis: The Wisconsin Badgers had another very nice year and came into the tournament as a #1 seed in the West. The Badgers have now won 10 games in a row and have gotten to the Final with wins over Coastal Carolina, Oregon, North Carolina and Arizona. for the year the Badgers have gone 35-3 overall and will be making their 4th trip to the Final 4. Wisconsin has gone 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 non-conference games and 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 neutral site games. The Badgers have been a good offensive team this year, ranking 51st in scoring (72.8 ppg), 17th in shooting (48.2%), 81st in 3 point shooting (36.4%) and 11th in FT shooting (76.4%). The defense for this team has been excellent this year, ranking 12th in points allowed (57.8 ppg), 155th in defensive FG% (42.6%) and 311th in 3 point defense (37.4%).
The Kentucky Wildcats come in as the top seeded team in the Big Dance and the last team left without a blemish on their record. Kentucky, which is now 38-0 on the year, continued their pursuit of a perfect season with a very hard fought win over Notre Dame in the Elite 8. The game vs the Irish was the closest that the Cats have come to losing in the Tourney. Kentucky will be making it's 17th trip to the Final 4. The Cats have gone 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 neutral site games, but just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Kentucky have been a very good offensive team this year, ranking 30th in scoring (74.6 ppg), 39th in shooting (46.8%), 161st in 3 point shooting (34.7%) and 66th in FT shooting (72.5%). The defense for this team has been excellent as they come in ranked, 3rd in points allowed (53.9 ppg), 1st in defensive FG% (35.1%) and 2nd in 3 point defense (26.7%).
Pick: I will be looking at the Over in this game. Wisconsin can't shoot better than they did in the game vs Arizona, but still this is the most efficient offensive team in the nation and their first 4 tourney games have averaged 152.3 ppg. Wisconsin has been known as a defensive squad this year, but in the tourney they have allowed 71.8 ppg so far. Now they face a Kentucky team that has averaged 76.3 ppg in their last 6 games overall and 75.2 ppg in their 9 neutral site games this year. Wisconsin has also had goo offensive success in their 10 neutral site game, averaging 75.3 ppg in those games, while they have scored 80.4 ppg in their last 5 games. Yes Kentucky has a great defense, but Notre Dame was able to score 66 points on them and I can se the Badgers getting at least 65 in this one. Many Under trends are around for this one, but I will go the other way as I expect at least 65 point from both teams here.
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