Tonight the NIT Tournament moves to the Final 4 and I will have a Free Pick in the game between the Stanford Cardinal and the Old Dominion Monarchs, which will take place at Madison Square Garden in New York. The game has a start time of 9:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN. Current Vegas betting odds have the Cardinal listed as 2.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 135.
Analysis: The Stanford Cardinal had not played all that well down the stretch losing 4 of their final 5 games, but they have started to play better in the NIT Tournament as they now have wins over UC Davis, Rhode Island and Vanderbilt to move on to the semifinals. For the year the Cardinal is now 22-13 overall, including 6-10 in all games away from home. Stanford has gone 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games, but just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss. The Cardinal have been a very good offensive team this year, as they come in ranked 52nd in scoring (72.7 ppg), 167th in shooting (43.6%), 49th in 3 point shooting (37.9%) and 66th in FT shooting (72.5%). Defensively the Cardinal has been not that good this year, ranking 202nd in points allowed (67.6 ppg), 165th in defensive FG% (42.8%) and 333rd in 3 point defense (38.1%).
The Old Dominion Monarchs had a very solid year as they have gone 27-7 overall, which includes a 7-7 mark in all games away from home. The Monarchs made it to the semifinals with wins over Charleston Southern, Illinois State and Murray State, with all 3 games being played on their home floor. ODU has gone 12-4 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. The Monarchs have not been a good offensive team this year, ranking 235th in scoring (65.1 ppg), 173rd in shooting (43.5%), 230th in 3 point shooting (33.1%) and 258th in FT shooting (66.8%). The defense for this team has been excellent this year, ranking 8th in points allowed (56.8 ppg), 45th in defensive FG% (39.8%) and 28th in 3 point defense (30.8%).
Pick: Going with the Under here. I know that the new shot clock rules are in place, but still this should be a slow paced game and neither team is used to playing in a place as big as MSG, which should make for bad shooting from both teams. Stanford has not been a great defensive team this year, but they should be able to handle this poor ODU offense that has averaged just 64.6 ppg on the road and just 56.2 in their 4 neutral site games this year. THis is one of the slowest paced teams in the nation, while on defense they have been excellent as they have allowed just 56.8 ppg overall, 64 ppg on the road and just 57.5 ppg on neutral courts. Offensively the Cardinal has been rolling of late, but they just won't get enough possessions to do much damage in this one and they have averaged just 68.8 ppg on neutral courts this year. With the pace the ODU makes you play at and with their defense I just don't see how this one comes close to 140 points, especially in this non-friendly shooting venue. I see this one staying in the 120s.
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