Tonight's NCAA Tournament Free Pick will be in an Elite 8 game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the undefeated Kentucky Wildcats, which will take place at Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio. The game has a start time of 8:49 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on TBS. Current Vegas betting odds have the Wildcats listed as 11 point favorites, while the total is set at 136.
Analysis: The Notre Dame Fighting Irish did not look great in their first two NCAA Tournament ga,es, but they really broke out, especially offensively vs Wichita state in their Sweet 16 game. This is the matchup the Irish have been looking forward to. Notre Dame is now 32-5 on the year, with the 32 wins being their most is school history. Notre Dame has gone 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, but just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 NCAA Tournament games. The Irish have been a very good offensive squad this year, ranking 13th in scoring (78.3 ppg), 2nd in shooting (51.1%), 19th in 3 point shooting (39.2%) and 27th in FT shooting (74.2%). The defense for this team has been rather average, ranking 145th in points allowed (65.7 ppg), 151st in defensive FG% (42.5%) and 73rd in 3 point defense (32.4%).
The Kentucky Wildcats come in as the top seeded team in the Big Dance and the last team left without a blemish on their record. Kentucky, which is now 376-0 on the year, continued their pursuit of a perfect season with an absolute drubbing of West Virginia in the round of 16. This is clearly the best team in the Nation and the Irish will have their work cut out for them for sure. The Cats have gone 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 neutral site games, but just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. the ACC. Kentucky have been a very good offensive team this year, ranking 29th in scoring (74.8 ppg), 44th in shooting (46.6%), 170th in 3 point shooting (34.4%) and 64th in FT shooting (72.5%). The defense for this team has been excellent as they come in ranked, 2nd in points allowed (53.5 ppg), 1st in defensive FG% (34.8%) and 2nd in 3 point defense (26.7%).
Pick: I will go with the Irish to keep it close here. I feel they have the better offense in this one and while Kentucky has a great defense they have struggled at times this year putting away teams, especially Vanderbilt, who runs a similar offense to that of Notre Dame's. The Irish will be able to hit the open shots vs Kentucky and that will then open up the driving lanes for some buckets on the inside. The Cats are the best team in the Nation, but Notre Dane is playing with heart and are a team that plays very good team ball, plus i'm sure that Mike Brey will have a game plan to give the Irish their best shot at winning. i don't feel that Notre Dame will win outright, but they should keep it close.
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