Friday night's NBA Free Pick will be in the game between the Dallas Mavericks and the San Antonio Spurs, which will be played in San Antonio. The game has a start time of 8:30 pm (Eastern) and will be televised Locally. Current Vegas betting odds have the Spurs listed as 8.55 point favorites, while the total is set at 205.5.
Analysis: The Dallas Mavericks are not playing good ball at the moment as they come in having won just 6 of their last 13 games, but they do come in off a nice 101-94 home win over the Spurs in their last game. For the year Dallas is 45-27 overall, including 20-15 on the road and if the playoffs started today they would be a 7 seed in the West, but should they win this game they would move up to 6th. Dallas has gone just 9-24-2 ATS in their last 34 vs. the Western Conference and 9-21 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Mavericks have been a very good offensive team this year, ranking 3rd in scoring (104.6 ppg), 6th in shooting, 11th in 3 point shooting and 17th in FT shooting. Defensively the Mavericks have not been so good this year, ranking 21st in points allowed (101.0 ppg), 17th in defensive FG% and 25th in 3 point defense.
The San Antonio Spurs come in hot as they have won 11 of their last 14 games, which includes a very impressive 19 point road win over Atlanta and an even more impressive 39 point home win over Oklahoma City on Wednesday. The Spurs will be looking for revenge here as sandwiched between those win was a 101-94 loss at Dallas. The Spurs are now 45-26 on the year and if the playoffs started today they would have a 6th seed. They must win this game to maintain that 6 seed. San Antonio has gone 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, but just 2-8 ATS the last 10 in the series. The Spurs have been a good offensive team this year, ranking 9th in scoring (102.8 ppg), 5th in shooting, 5th in 3 point shooting and 6th in FT shooting. Defensively the Spurs have been solid, ranking 9th in points allowed (97.8 ppg), 14th in defensive FG% and 27th in 3 point defense.
Pick: Going with the Spurs to get a measure of revenge in this one. San Antonio looked great in their home win over the Thunder the other night and while I don't expect a 39 point win here I do look for them to win rather comfortably. The Spurs are the better team here and they are rounding into playoff for as we head down the stretch of this season. The Spurs have lost the last 2 in this series to dallas and they won the earlier meeting this season at home by just 1 point. That all changes tonight.
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