It's on to the Sweet 16 and a Free Pick will be given in the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the Wisconsin Badgers, which will take place at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, California. The game has a start time of 7:47 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on TBS. Current Vegas betting odds have the Badgers listed as 6 point favorites, while the total is set at 145.
Analysis: The North Carolina Tar Heels won their second round game vs Harvard by a score of 67-65 and then raced past Arkansas in a wild 87-78 game to move on to the Sweet 16. For the year Carolina in now 26-11 overall, which includes a 9-2 mark on neutral courts. The Heels have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games, but just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. North Carolina has been a very good offensive team this year, ranking 15th in scoring (77.9 ppg), 24th in shooting (47.6%), 137th in 3 point shooting (35.1%) and 127th in FT shooting (70.3%). The defense for this team has not been that good as they come in ranked 239th in points allowed (68.6 ppg), 41st in defensive FG% (39.7%) and 12th in 3 point defense (30.0%).
The Wisconsin Badgers had another very nice year in the Big 10 as they won both the regular season and the tournament titles. The Badgers have made it to the Sweet 16 with wins over Coastal Carolina and Oregon and now have gone 33-3 for the year, which includes a perfect 8-0 mark on neutral courts. Wisconsin has gone 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs the ACCand 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 neutral site games. The Badgers have been a good offensive team this year, ranking 57th in scoring (72.3 ppg), 18th in shooting (48.0%), 109th in 3 point shooting (35.8%) and 11th in FT shooting (76.1%). The defense for this team has been excellent this year, ranking 10th in points allowed (56.8 ppg), 126th in defensive FG% (42.2%) and 294th in 3 point defense (36.8%).
Pick: I am looking at the Under in this one. The Badgers are locked in defensively right now and while they have run with some teams this year I don't feel they will attempt that with the Heels in this one. That would be a recipe for disaster for this team. North Carolina should be without Kennedy Meeks for this one and with him goes 11.6 ppg on 56.5% shooting. That not easy to replace especially vs a Wisconsin team that has allowed just 56.8 ppg on 42.2% shooting for the year, while away from home they have allowed just 56 ppg on 40.2% shooting. This is a tough defense that should slow down the Heels here. Carolina is not a great defensive team, they are 41st in the nation in defensive FG% and Wisconsin should really play a slow paced game on offense. In their game vs Arkansas the Heels won by 9 in a game that was uptempo and more to their like, while they only won by 2 vs a slow paced Harvard team in a game that saw just 132 points being scored. Slowing this team down is the key to beating them and for that I really don't see why the Badgers would run with them. This one should be played in the 130s as well.
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