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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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NCAA Tournament Odds Valparaiso Crusaders vs Maryland Terrapins Free Pick

Today the Valparaiso Crusaders will tangle with the Maryland Terrapins at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio in the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament. The game has a start time of 4:40 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on TNT. Current Vegas betting odds have the Terrapins listed as 4.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 123.5. 

Analysis: The Valparaiso Crusaders won both the Horizon league Regular season and the conference tourney as well. Valpo has had a big year as they went 28-5 overall and will be making their 9th trip to the NCAA Tournament, where they have yet to get past the 2nd round. Valpo has gone 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, but 0-4 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games. The Crusaders have been a decent offensive team this year, ranking 103rd in scoring (69.8 ppg), 69th in shooting (45.9%), 52nd in 3 point shooting (37.8%) and 234th in FT shooting (67.8%). The defense for this team has been very good as they come in ranked 17th in points allowed (59.3 ppg), 8th in defensive FG% (38.0%) and 102nd in 3 point defense (32.8%).

The Maryland Terrapins had a very good first year in the Big 10, where they finished 2nd in the year, while posting an overall 27-6 record. The Terps have won 8 of their last 9 games overall and will be making their 25th trip to the NCAA Tournament, where they have gone to 2 Final Fours and have 1 National Championship. Maryland has gone 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games and 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games following a S.U. loss. The Terrapins have been a decent offensive squad this year, ranking 114th in scoring (69.5 ppg), 163rd in shooting (43.7%), 63rd in 3 point shooting (37.2%) and 14th in FT shooting (75.7%). The defense for this team has been solid this year, ranking 87th in points allowed (63.2 ppg), 38th in defensive FG% (39.6%) and 40th in 3 point defense (31.2%).          

Pick:  I will go with the Terrapins in this one. They may be a bit overrated, but I feel they will get off on the right foot in the tournament. The Terps did finish 2nd in the Big 10 and they did win 8 of their last 9 games, with that loss being by just 4 points to Michigan State in the Big 10 Tournament. The Crusaders have had a nice season at 28-5, but just hasn't played the same competition as the Terps have. Valpo has really only played 2 non-conference teams of note (New Mexico and Missouri) and they lost both by DD. Maryland is 13-3 in their last 16 neutral site games and will keep that run going with at least an 8 point win here.  

 

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