NBA Friday night and we will see the Dallas Mavericks travel to American Airlines Arena to take on the Miami Heat. The game has a start time of 8:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN. Current Vegas betting odds have Dallas listed as 9 point favorites, while the total is set at 190.5
Analysis: The Dallas Mavericks are struggling right now as they come in having lost 4 games in a row, including a 99-94 loss at Houston on Wednesday night. Dallas is currently tied for 3rd in the Southwest Division with a 30-17 record overall, including a 16-9 record on the road. The Mavericks have gone 64-31 ATS in their last 95 road games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs the Eastern Conference, but just 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss. Dallas has been a very good offensive squad this year, ranking 3rd in scoring (107.2 ppg), 5th in shooting, 12th in 3 point shooting and 12th in FT shooting. Defensively the Mavericks have not been very good at all as they come in ranked 23rd in points allowed (101.9 ppg), 17th in defensive FG% and 27th in 3 point defense.
The Miami Heat come in off a tough 109 -102 loss at home vs the improving Milwaukee Bucks. The loss now has Miami at 20-25 on the year, which includes a poor 8-14 mark at home. Lebron would not have let that happen. Heat have gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss, but just 3-13-1 the last 17 at home in the series and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Miami has been a poor offensive squad this year, ranking 28th in scoring (92.9 ppg), 11th in shooting, 21st in 3 point shooting and 22nd in FT shooting. Defensively the Heat have been very good as they come in ranked 2nd in points allowed (96.2 ppg), 19th in defensive FG% and 19th in 3 point defense.
Pick: Going to take a shot at the Over in this game. I know that Miami is without both Deng and Wade, but they were without both of them on Tuesday night and still scored 102 points and this is not a good Dallas defensive team as they come in allowing 101.9 ppg overall, 101.5 ppg on the road and 104.8 ppg in their last 4 games. I can see Miami getting their fair share of points in the one. For Dallas they have had no problems scoring at all this year, ranking 3rd in the league at 107.2 ppg and they have score 15.8 ppg on the road for the year. The Heat have allowed just 97.5 ppg at home this year, but in their last game without Wade and Deng they allowed a below average Milwaukee offense to put up 109 points on them. The Over is 8-1 the last 9 in the series and I see that trend continuing here.
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