NCAA basketball on Friday night and we will see the St Mary's Gaels travel to Carnesecca Arena in Queens, New York to take on the St John's Red Storm. The game has a start time of 7:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on Fox Sports 1. Vegas odds have the Red Storm listed as 7 point favorites, while the total sits at 135.
Analysis: The St Mary's Gaels come in off an embarrassing home loss to the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks, in a game that they were favored by 14 in. The loss now has the Gaels at 6-2 overall, while they have gone 1-0 in their lone road game so far. The Gaels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big East, but just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. St Mary's has been a solid offensive squad this year, ranking 55th in scoring (75.6 ppg), 70th in shooting (46.8 %), 73rd in 3 point shooting (37.6%) and 123rd in FT shooting (70.6%). Defensively this has not been a good team, as they come in ranked 216th in points allowed (68.4 ppg), 343rd in defensive FG% (49.4%) and 254th in 3 point defense (35.6%).
The St John's Red Storm have had a nice start to their year as they come in ranked 18th in the nation with an 8-1 record overall and a perfect 5-0 mark at home. Their lone loss on the year was by 7 points to Gonzaga. The Red Storm are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. win and 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, but just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. West Coast Conference. St John's have been a decent offensive squad this year, ranking 85th in scoring (73.3 ppg), 133rd in shooting (44.9 %), 210th in 3 point shooting (32.7%) and 146th in FT shooting (68.6%). The defense has been very good for this team, as they come in ranked 69th in points allowed (60.6 ppg), 26th in defensive FG% (46.8%) and 41st in 3 point defense (28.7%).
Pick: Im going to look at the Under in this one. The Gaels are a team that get up an down the floor and come in averaging 75.4 ppg overall and 71.0 ppg on the road, but they will be taking on a St John's squad that is locked in defensively right, as they come having allowed just 58.4 ppg in their last 5 games, while at home this year they have given up just 55 ppg. Defensively the Gaels have allowed 68.6 ppg overall and 67 ppg on the road and they are not really taking on an explosive offensive team. The Red Storm do have patience on off and score a modest 71.8 ppg at home. The Under is 13-3 in St Mary's last 16 games over all and 7-1 in their last 8 off an ATS loss, while the under is 6-1 in the Red Storm's last 7 at home and 5-0-1 in their last 6 non-conference games. I'll call for this one to put up no more than 130 points.
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