Thursday college football and we will see the Central Florida Knights take on the East Carolina Pirates at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Greenville, North Carolina. The game has a start time of 7:30 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN. Current Vegas odds have East Carolina listed as 7 point favorites, while the total is set at 54.5.
Analysis: The UCF Knights come into this game having won 3 games in a row, while not allowing more than 7 points in each of those games. The Knights are now 8-3 overall and 6-1 in the AAC and a win here would put them in a first play tie with Memphis in the conference. The Knights are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games and 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, but the road team is 5-1 ATS the last 6 meetings. UCF has not been a strong offensive squad, ranking 107th in total offense, 67th in passing, 105th in rushing and 74th in scoring (27.8 ppg). The defense for this team has been exceptional, as they come in ranked 4th in total yards allowed, 6th vs the pass, 9th vs the run and 5th in points allowed (16.8 ppg).
The East Carolina Pirates also come in at 8-3 on the year, but with a 5-2 conference record they are out of the race in the AAC. The Pirates are just 2-2 in their last 4 games, but they are 5-0 at home this year. The Pirates are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games, but just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. win and 4-15 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Pirates are a very strong offensive team, ranking 3rd in total offense, 3rd in passing, 51st in rushing and 14th in scoring (37.8 ppg). The defense has been rather average, ranking 41st in yards allowed, 107th vs the pass, 7th vs the run and 53rd in points allowed (25.1 ppg).
Pick: Going with the Under in this game. Yes I know how high scoring the Pirate offense is, but they will be taking on a very hot defense that has allowed jut 14 total points in their last 3 games, while ranking 5th in the nation in points allowed, giving up just 16.5 ppg. We also note that ECU was shut down vs solid defensive teams like Temple and South Florida, plus were able to score just 28 points Va Tech. I see UCF keeping them under 28 points. For the Knights their offense is not all that explosive and a rather conservative one. They have really struggled offensively on the road where they have averaged 18 ppg, while the Pirates have played solid defense at home, allowing just 19.8 ppg. I just can't see this game reaching the high 40s, let alone the 50s.
Get Stephen Nover's TRIPLE DIME CBB GAME OF WEEK!!! For Free- No Obligation - No Credit Card Required - Becoming a member is Fast and Free!
Stay on top of the latest odds and line moves for Football Season with our real-time odds from Las Vegas and offshore!
College Football Free Picks: Arizona vs Oregon Betting
What college football bettors need to know about betting Arizona Wildcats vs Oregon Ducks on Friday (12/05/14) - a free pick from Pregame.com's Ken Thomson with added insight from Dave Cokin.