College football week 14 and the Arkansas Razorbacks will travel to Faurot Field to take on the Missouri Tigers. The game has a start time of 2:30 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on CBS. Current Vegas odds have the Razorbacks listed as 2.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 45.
Analysis: The Arkansas Razorbacks broke a 17 game losing streak in the SEC a couple of weeks ago vs LSU and they followed that up with a big 30-0 win at home vs Ole Miss last week. The Razorbacks have now reached bowl eligibility with a 6-5 record on the year. Arkansas is 10-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games in November and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win. Arkansas has been a decent offensive team this year, ranking 54th in total yards, 95th in passing, 26th in rushing and 38th in scoring (33.6 ppg). The defense has been outstanding of late as tey have thrown 2 shutouts in a row. Overall the Hogs now rank 24th in yards allowed, 50th vs the pass, 20th vs the run and 16th in points allowed (20.2 ppg).
The Missouri Tigers come in at 9-2 on the year, including 6-1 in the SEC. They are atop the SEC East standings and a win here will put them back in the SEC Title game. The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games in November, 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall and 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a S.U. win. Missouri has not been a great offensive team, ranking 104th in total yards, 106th in passing, 56th in rushing and 65th in scoring (29.3 ppg). The defense has been very good for this team, ranking 23rd in yards allowed, 38th vs the pass, 23rd vs the run and 17th in points allowed (20.2 ppg).
Pick: I have been riding unders with the Hogs of late and won’t stop here. This Arkansas defense has really come alive and has not pitched two straight shutouts in a row, while allowing just 8.5 ppg in their last 4 games. The Missouri offense is not as strong as in the last couple years and they come in averaging just 24.5 ppg at home for the year. The Missouri defense has been solid this year, especially vs the run, where they have allowed just 3.3 ypc on the year and that is facing an average of 40 rushing attempts per game. That should keep this run heavy Arkansas squad from getting too many chuck plays on offense. They will have to make time consuming drives if they are to score. Both teams are run first teams, which will keep the clock running, while the defenses for both teams will do the rest in keeping the points off the board. This has the feel of a 20-17 type of game, especially with the Under being 12-3 in Missouri’s last 15 home games vs a team with a winning record.
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