Friday college football and we will see the Air Force Falcons take on the San Diego State Aztecs at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, California. The game has a start time of 9:30 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on CBSSN. Current Vegas odds have San Diego State listed as 6 point favorites, while the total is set at 49.
Analysis: The Air Force Falcons come in having won 4 in a row to push their record to 8-2 overall and 4-2 in the MWC. They are in 2nd place in the Mountain Division of the MWC, but behind 3 teams that are 5-1. The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win, but just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 conference games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Air Force is a decent offensive squad that ranks 48th in total yards, 117th in passing 8th in rushing and 45th in scoring (33 ppg). On defense hey haven't been that bad either as they rank 49th in yards allowed, 85th vs the pass, 38th vs the run and 41st in points allowed (23.6 ppg).
San Diego State has had a very mediocre 5-5 year so far, which makes this game very important for them as they need that 6th win to reach bowl eligibility. The good news for them is that they are at home where they have gone 4-0 this year. The Aztecs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games in November and 4-1 ATS the last 5 at home in his series, but also 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. San Diego State is not a good offensive team, ranking 76th in total yards, 108th in passing, 34th in rushing and 98th in scoring (24.1 ppg). The defense for the Aztecs has been solid, ranking 32nd in total yards allowed, 28th vs the pass, 51st vs the run and 26th in points allowed (22 ppg).
Pick: Going with the under in this game. The Aztecs have been a very solid defensive team this year as they have allowed just 22 ppg overall, including just 14 ppg at home. The Aztec Offense has played very well at home, where they have averaged 32 ppg, but the Air Fortce defense has been solid allowing just 23 ppg on the road. The Aztecs play a very slow brand of ball, while Air Force isn’t really an uptempo team, while both defenses are very solid and we note that the under is 5-1 the last 6 in this series. I see a game in the lower 40s here.
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