Thursday night football and we will see the Buffalo Bills take on the Miami Dolphins at Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. The game has a start time of 8:25 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on the NFL Network. Current Vegas odds have the Dolphins listed as 4.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 41.5.
Analysis: The Buffalo Bills come into his game off a hard fought 17-13 home loss to Kansas City last week. The loss dropped them to 5-4 on the year and are in a tie for second place in the AFC East with Miami. The teams are 2 full games behind the Pats. The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 11, but also 1-10 ATS on the road off a SU home loss. The Bills have a below average offensive squad that ranks 23rd in total yards, 18th in passing, 20th in rushing and 23rd in scoring (21.2 ppg). The defense for Buffalo has been very solid, ranking 6th in yards allowed, 7th vs the pass, 8th vs the run and 7th in points allowed (20.2 ppg).
The Miami Dolphins come in at 5-4 on the year and in 2nd place in the AFC East. Miami had a bit of a slow start to the year, but have since won 4 of their last 4 games. The Fish are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 vs. AFC, but are also 0-7 ATS if they are better than .500 and playing in their 5th home game and off a non-division game. The Dolphins are an average offensive squad that comes in ranked 14th in total yards, 19th in passing, 7th in rushing and 11th in scoring (25.2 ppg). The defense has been very stout for this team as 4th in yards allowed, 2nd vs the pass, 10th vs the run and 5th in points allowed (19.0 ppg).
Pick: Have to look at the Under in this one. Both teams are in the top 7 in terms of points allowed and neither offense is very explosive. This is a division game and I know that all games go over in primetime games, but I just can't see it here. Miami did put up many points vs weak defenses like Green Bay, Oakland, Jacksonville, Chicago and San Diego in a 5 game stretch, but last week when they finally faced an NFL defense (Detroit) they were held to just 16 points. The Bills also struggled on offense vs the Lions, scoring justy 17 points and the week before vs a tough Houston defense they scored just 17 points as well. Miami scored just 15 vs KC, while Buffalo put up just 13 vs the Chiefs. Let's also note that Miami put up just 10 points on Buffalo in an earlier meeting and while the Bills scored 29 points in that game they also totaled just 315 yards and 13 firstdowns in the contest. Bottom line is that that offenses will struggle vs good defenses this year and both teams do have good defenses. The Under is 5-1 in Buffalo's last 6 games in November and 6-2 in their last 8 vs the AFC East, while the Under is 22-8-1 in Miami's last 31 in November and 5-0-1 in their last 6 games on Thursday night. I see a 20-14 type game here.
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