College football week 10 and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish will take on the Navy Midshippmen at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland. The game has a start time of 8:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on CBS. Current Vegas odds have the Fighting Irish listed as 14.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 54.5.
Analysis: The Notre Dame Fighting Irish had last week off to lick their wounds from a very tough 31-27 loss to the Florida State Seminoles. The loss now has Notre Dame at 6-1 on the year, but still they are in the thick of the chase to be one of the final foul teams. Notre Dame is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game, while the road team is 16-3 ATS the last 19 meetings. The Irish have been a decent offensive team this year, ranking 42nd in total yards, 29th in passing, 67th in rushing and 42nd in scoring (33.4 ppg). Defensively they have been very solid, ranking 34th in yards allowed, 77th vs the pass, 12th vs the run and 15th in points allowed (19.1 ppg).
The Navy Midshippmen come in with a mediocre 4-4 record that includes a 2-3 record at home. Navy has won 2 in a row, including last weeks 41-31 shootout with San Jose State. The Midshippmen are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win, but 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Navy comes in as a decent offensive squad, ranking 45th in total offense, 126th in passing, 2nd in rushing and 59th in scoring (30.9 ppg). On defense they have been a bit below average, ranking 77th in yards allowed, 75th vs the pass, 76th vs the run and 76th in points allowed (27.6 ppg).
Pick: I will look at the Over in this game. The Midshippmen defense has been bad this year and showed it last week by allowing a below average San Jose State squad to put up 31 points on them. Now they face an Irish offense that has been the best that Kelly has had here so far, putting up 33.4 ppg. Notre dame has allowed just 19.1 ppg, but thy have struggled on that side of the ball of late, allowing 29.3 ppg in their last 3 games. The last 3 in this series has average 67.3 ppg and I fully expect this one to be played in the 60s as well.
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