Thursday night college football and the Troy Trojans will travel to Allen E. Paulson Stadium to take on the Georgia Southern Eagles. The game has a start time of 7:30 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN U. Current Vegas odds have the Eagles listed as 25.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 63.
Analysis: The Troy Trojans have had a horrendous year so far, going 1-7 overall, including a 1-3 mark within the Sun Belt Conference. The Trojans are also 0-4 on the road this year and have been outscored by 30 ppg in those games. Th Trojans are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game, but are also just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games in October. The Trojans are an offensively challenged squad that comes in ranked 106th in total yards, 82nd in passing, 99th in rushing and 118th in scoring, putting up just 18.8 ppg. They are also defensively challenged, ranking 107th in yards allowed, 50th vs the pass, 120th vs the run and 120th in points allowed (39 ppg).
The Georgia Southern Eagles come in with a 6-2 mark on the year, while leading the the Sun Belt Conference with a perfect 5-0 mark, winning all 5 games by at least 12 points. The Eagles are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win and 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The Eagles are a very strong offensive squad that comes in ranked 11th in total yards, 124th in passing, 1st in rushing and 7th in scoring (44.8 ppg). The defense has been rather average, as they rank 74th in total yards allowed, 100th vs the pass, 43rd vs the run and 36th in points allowed (22.2 ppg).
Pick: This one I will look over the total. These lower tier NCAA teams don't often get on national TV, but when they do they have been pulling out all the stops to put on a good show and I expect that here as well. Georgia Southern has one of the best offenses in the nation, averaging 44.8 ppg and they will be facing a horrible Troy defense that has allowed 39 ppg. Normally when I know a team will run allot I don't like the Over, but this is different as the eagles have piled up their points with the top rushing attack in the nation and will be facing a Troy defense that is 120th in the nation vs the run. Last week the Eagles scored 60 points on Georgia State and threw the ball just 6 times in the game for 47 yards. Wow. Troy is not a good offensive team, but they will be facing a Georgia Southern defense that has allowed 27.7 ppg in their last 3 games. I can see Troy getting at least 24 points here, while Georgia southern should hit the 50 point mark. Mid 70's here.
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