College football week 9 and the Connecticut Huskies will travel to Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Greenville, North Carolina to take on the East Carolina Pirates. The game has a start time of 7:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN U. Current Vegas odds have the Pirates listed as 26 point favorites, while the total is set at 55.
Analysis: Bob Diaco was brought in to change the fortunes of this UConn team, but after losing 12-3 to Tulane two weeks ago they have now fallen to 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS for the year so far. The Huskies are now 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games in October and 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a spread loss, but they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on Thursday nights. The Problems for this team are all on the offensive side of the ball, as they come in ranked 126th in total yards, 109th in passing, 124th in rushing and 127th in scoring, putting up just 12.8 ppg. On defense they haven't had nearly as many issues, as they come in ranked 17th in yards allowed, 31st vs the pass, 28th vs the run and 63rd in points allowed, giving up 25.7 ppg.
The East Carolina Pirates have had a nice 5-1 start to their year, which has included wins over North Carolina at home and Virginia Tech On the road. The Pirates are 3-0 at home and are currently ranked 17th in the national polls. Spreadwise the Pirates are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games on grass, but they are also just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in October. Offensively this team has no issues at all and have one of the best QB in the nation in Shane Carden leading it. The Pirates come in ranked 3rd in the nation in total yards, 4th in passing, 45 th in rushing and 12th in scoring (41.0 ppg). The Pirates have also been decent on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 47th in yards allowed, 99th vs the pass, 15th vs the run and 49th in points allowed (23.8 ppg).
Pick: I know the Pirates can score a bazillion points, but they have also played some bad defenses this year, including South Carolina SMU, North Carolina and NC Central (FCS School). Everyone has been putting up points on those teams this year. Now lets look at two team that the Pirates have faced that have played solid defense this year. One is the Hokies, who have a top 20 defense year in and year out and the other is South Florida, who doesn't have a horrible defense, but are far better than the other 4 listed above. In those two games the Pirates have been able to score just 28 points in each game.Now they face a UConn team that has allowed 25.7 ppg, but also ranks 17th in total yards allowed, 31st vs the pass and 28th vs the run. This is a Bob Diaco defense that will find away to keep the Pirates under 40 points in this game, especially with the week off. The Huskies are a very bad offensive team, as they have scored just 12.8 ppg, plus they also play a grind it out style of ball with will help limit the possessions of the pirates in this one. Lets also note that they will be taking on a Carolina defense that has allowed just 23.8 ppg on the year. I don't see the Huskies coming close to 24 points in this game. I see this one in the mid to upper 40's.
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