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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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College Football Free Pick Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Florida State Seminoles

Saturday night college football and we will see the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on the Florida State Seminoles at Doak Campbell Stadium in Florida. The game has a start time of 8:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ABC. Current Vegas odds have the Seminoles listed as 10 point favorites, while the total is set at 56.5.  

Analysis:  The Notre Dame Fighting Irish come in at 6-0 on the year, which includes a 31-0 home win over Michigan and a 17-14 Home win over Stanford two weeks ago. Last week was a letdown spot for them and it showed as they barely beat North Carolina 50-43. The Irish are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in October, but also just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring 40 or more points.   Everett Golson missed last year due to academic problems, but has come back strong this year so far, throwing for 1683 yards with 16 TDs and just 4 INTs. The Irish are a very average offensive team as they come in ranked 43rd overall, 34th in passing, 69th in rushing and 41st in scoring (34.5 ppg). The defense has been outstanding for the Irish as they come in ranked 35th in yards allowed, 69th vs the pass, 20th vs the run and 9th in points in points allowed (17.2 ppg).

The Florida State Seminoles also come into the game with a 6-0 record that includes a perfect 3-0 mark at home. The question surrounding the Noles coming into this game is whether or not they can handle all the off the field distraction that are going on surrounding Jameis Winston. At this point he is slated to play, but we shall see by game day. The Noles are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games, but also just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Jameis Winston has not looked as good as he did last year, but still has some good numbers hitting 70% of his passes for 1605 yards with 11 TDs and 5 INTs. Overall the Noles rank 33rd in total offense, 13th in passing offense, 98th in rushing and 21st in scoring (39 ppg). The defense has not been as good as last year and comes ranked 44th in yards allowed, 41st vs the pass, 54th vs the run, and 20th in points allowed (20.7 ppg).    

Pick: Tough one to call here, but I do feel that Notre Dame can keep this game within a TD. They played a bad game last week vs North Carolina, but that was in a tough scheduling spot for them. The Noles come in with plenty of distractions and just don't look like the same team that won the National Title last year. Notre Dame know that if they lose to the Noles in a close game then they still have a shot at getting to the playoff with 1 loss. If they get blown out they don't. Irish Keep it close here. 

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