Tuesday night college football and we will see the UL Lafayette Ragin Cajuns take on the Texas State Bobcats at Bobcat Stadium in San Marcos, Texas. The game has a start time of 8:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN 2. Current Vegas odds have the Bobcats listed as 2.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 64.
Analysis: The UL Lafayette Ragin Cajuns come into this game with a mark of 2-3, which includes an 0-2 mark on the road. They do come off a 3 point win vs Georgia State, despite the fact that they were 16 point favorites in the game. The Ragin Cajuns are 1-7 ATS their last 8 games following an ATS loss, but they are also 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games vs a team with a winning record. QB Terrance Broadway has not had a good year so far as he has hit just 59.9% of his passes for 892 Yards with 6 TDs and 7 INTs. He leads an offense that has been rather poor this year, ranking 84th overall, 87th in passing, 58th in rushing and 95th in scoring (24.6 ppg). The defense has really struggled as they come in ranked 104th overall, 107th vs the pass, 92nd vs the run and 104th in points allowed (35 ppg).
Texas State comes in with a 3-2 record on the year, which includes a 2-1 record at home. The Bobcats also won their last game, but also failed to cover in a 35-30 win over Idaho as 14.5 point favorites. The Bobcats have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 October games and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games overall. QB Tyler Jones has had a nice year for the Bobcats so far, as he has hit 68.4% of his passes for 1149 yards, with 12 TDs and just 4 INTs, while also rushing for 253 yards and 4 more TDs. He is in charge of a very good offense that ranks 20th in yards, 63rd in passing, 16th in rushing and 23rd in scoring (38.6 ypg). The defense has struggled for this team as they are 85th in yards allowed, 34th vs the pass, 110th vs the run and 82nd in points allowed (28.2 ppg).
Pick: I will be looking at the Under in this game. The UL Lafayette offense has not been that strong this year, averaging just 24.6 ppg. including scoring just 12 ppg on the road, while Texas State has played good defense at home, allowing just 21.7 ppg so far this year at Bobcat Stadium. Now I know that UL Lafayette allows 45 ppg on the road and Texas State scores 40.3 ppg at home, but I just don't see that happening in this one. Lafayette did allow that 45 ppg on the road to Ole Miss and Boise State, while Texas State has piled up their home numbers vs Ark- Pine Bluff, Navy and Idaho. These teams are not like what they have faced at home yet or on the road. They are much closer in talent, plus both teams do run the ball allot, which will keep the clock moving. This game should be played in the 50's at best with a final that looks some thing like 30-27.
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Handicapping Tips: Derivative Betting
Steve Fezzik, from Pregame.com take a look at some handicapping tips pertaining to derivative betting. This includes a free pick from Steve.