Week 7 college football and the Alabama Crimson Tide will travel to Fayetteville, Arkansas to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks. The game has a start time of 6:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN. Current Vegas odds have the Crimson Tide listed as 9 point favorites, while the total is set at 56.
Analysis: The Alabama Crimson Tide were right in the thick of last weekend’s craziness, but unfortunately they were on the wrong side of it as they suffered a 23-17 road loss to Mississippi. The loss now has the Tide at 4-1 on the year and they have now fallen to 7th in polls. Alabama is 5-1 ATS the last 6 in the series, but also 1-7 ATS on the road vs a .500 or better opponent with rest. Blake Sims has been solid for the Tide under center, hitting 70.1% of his passes for 1305 yards with 8 TDs and 3 INTs. His favorite target is Amari Cooper, who has 52 receptions on the year for 743 yards and 5 TDs. After cooper it’s pretty thin as no other receiver has more than 12 catches. Overall the Tide is 10th in total offense, 24th in passing, 23rd in rushing and 30th in scoring (37 ppg), while the defense ranks 3rd overall, 30th vs the pass, 3rd vs the run and 12th in points allowed (15.8 ppg).
The Arkansas Razorbacks are off to a 3-2 start, which already matches their win total from all of last year. The Hogs have had the week off to recover from a tough OT loss at Texas A&M. The dog is 1-5 ATS in the series, but the Home team is 4-1 ATS the last 5 meetings between these teams. The Hogs are back to playing smashmouth football and are led by a pair of backs in Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams, who have combined for 1107 yards on the ground and 14 TDs this year so far. They lead a ground attack that is 7th in the nation. Overall the Hogs rank 29th in total offense, 111th in passing and 7th in scoring (44.6 ppg), while the defense ranks 74th in yards allowed, 97th vs the pass, 51st vs the run and 72nd in points allowed (25.8 ppg).
Pick: Going with the Tide in this game. Alabama hasn’t fared all that well off their first loss of the year, but this team still can make it into the NCAA playoffs should they win out and do so convincingly. I know that Alabama is a bit down this year, while Arkansas is improved but how much has Arkansas closed the gap from the last two years in which Alabama has beaten them by identical 52-0 scored. The Hogs may have close the gap, but not by that much. That is just too much ground to think they have made up. The Hogs style of play also plays into the hands of the Tide as they do not spread the ball out and run that up tempo offense that gives Bama fits. Arkansas will run their power running game and that is something Alabama can stop as they come in allowing just 64 ypg on the ground, which is 3 rd in the nation. That means that the Hogs will have to rely on their 111th rated passing offense to move the ball in this one. Not gonna happen. Arkansas is also not a very good defensive team, allowing 25.8 ppg and 403 ypg. It will be tough for them to stop a Bama team that has averaged 549 ypg and 37 ppg on the year so far. The Hogs are improved, and even if they closed the gap by 2 TDs over the last two years, then they still lose by 38. I expect Alabama to win this one by 17+.
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