Week 4 NFL concludes tonight and we will see the New England Patriots travel to Arrowhead Stadium Kansas City, Missouri to take on the Kansas City Chiefs. The game has a start time of 8:30 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN. Current Vegas odds have the Patriots listed as 2.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 46.5.
Analysis: The New England Patriots went 12-4 a year ago and made it to the AFC title game for the 3rd year in a row, before bowing out to the Denver Broncos, 26-16 in Denver. Last year the Patriots ranked 3rd in the league in scoring, at 27.8 ppg, while also ranking 8th in total yards (384.5 ypg) 10th in passing (255.4 ypg), but this year it a whole different story, as they come in 29th in total offense (301.1 ypg), 31st in passing (196.3 ypg) and 20th in scoring (22 ppg). It is very hard to say that this is a Tom Brady led offense, but it is. Tom comes in with some bad numbers for him, as he has completed just 58.8% and has just 3 TD passes on the year so far. It's seems to be a combination of all the talent lost at WR, an ineffective OL and a more conservative gameplan by Belichick. Luckily for the Patriot offense is the fact that they have a very good defense to fall back as they come in ranked 2nd in the league in total defense (272.2 ypg), 1st vs the pass (168.7 ypg) and 6th in scoring (16.3 ppg).
The Kansas City Chiefs had a solid first year under Head Coach Andy Ried as they went 11-5 on the year, but a 2-5 stretch run may show that this team could take a step back this year. The Chiefs have followed up that bad stretch run last year with a 1-2 start this year. They do come in off their first win of the year, beating Miami 34-15 last week. Last year the Chiefs offense was ranked 6th in scoring, at 26.9 ppg, while also ranking 21st in total yards (337.3 ypg) and 24th in passing (208.8 ypg), This year they have struggled to come close to those numbers, ranking 30th in total offense (322.3 ypg), 30th in passing (197.7 ypg) and 24th in scoring (20.3 ppg). This is not a good offense, but they are expected to get a boost with the return of Jamaal Charles tonight. The Defense for the Chiefs has been decent, as they come in 16th in total defense (354 ypg), 8th vs the pass (223.7 ypg) and 11th in points allowed (21.7)
Pick: Ya see where I'm going here with this one? Yep that's right the Under. The Patriots offense has become a conservative one. Let me repeat that... The Patriot offense has become a conservative one. They rank 21st in the league in passing and have averaged just 22 ppg. Let me repeat part of that... A Tom Brady led passing attack is 31st in the league. Wow. These are not normal Patriots this year. That's ok though as they have a very good defense to fall back on, as they come in ranked 2nd in total defense, 1st vs the pass and they allow just 16.3 ppg. This defense can be run on some as they are 11th vs the run and that is how I expect the Chiefs to attack them, especially if Charles plays as expected. The Chief defense has been very solid this year and should have a good showing vs a bad Patriot offense tonight. Let me repeat that... A bad Patriot offense. This game features two of the worst passing offenses in the league vs two top 8 passing defense, plus a coach that has become conservative and one that seems to always have been conservative. Defense, defense and more defense here as we get a game in the 30s at best.
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Handicapping Tips: Derivative Betting
Steve Fezzik, from Pregame.com take a look at some handicapping tips pertaining to derivative betting. This includes a free pick from Steve.