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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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CFB Saturday UTEP Miners vs New Mexico Lobos Free Pick

Saturday College football and we will see the UTEP Miners take on the New Mexico Lobos at University Stadium in New Mexico. The game has a start time of 8:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on the Mountain West Network. Current Vegas odds have the Lobos listed as 7.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 63.5.  

Analysis: The UTEP Miners suffered through an injury plagued 2013 season that saw them go 2-10. The Miners have now won just 5 games the last two years and haven’t had a winning season since 2005. . Last year the offense put up 31.7 ppg in their first 6 games and then the injury bug hit the offense and they were able to put up just 12.3 ppg in their final 6 games. Jamiell Showers transferred from Texas A&M last year and had a solid first half of the season, throwing for 1296 yards with 11 TDs and just 4 INTs before getting injured. He is healthy now but who will he throw to as only two players return that had more than 13 catches last year. Really that’s Okay cause this is a run first offense. Last year the run game was also grounded by injuries, but 7 of their 8 top ball carriers from last year are all back, which gives them one of the better run games in the league. The defense has allowed 29.8 ppg or more in 5 of their last 6 seasons and this year’s group looks like it will struggle as well. The DL is young and thin, and while the back 7 is a bit more experienced they are still not all that good.

The New Mexico Lobos had a total of 3 wins in the 3 years prior to Bob Davie becoming HC, but in his 2 years here has done a fine job recruiting and have guided the Lobos to 7 wins over that stretch. The Lobos are a run first offense, so their first order is finding a replacement for Kasey Carrier, who ran for 1122 yards and 9 TDs last year. Crusoe Gongbay looks ready to take over after rushing for 592 yards and 6 TDs last year. They also have decent depth with Jakan Johnson and Teriyon Gipson, plus don’t forget about dual threat QB Cole Gautsche, who was 2nd on the team in rushing last year, with 777 yards and 8 TDs. This group will set up behind the 2nd best OL in the league, with 3 starters back and solid depth. The defense has 6 starters back, but also have major work to do after allowing 42.8 ppg and 517 ypg last year. The Lobos did land 7 Jucos to help out on this side and a few of them are slated to start right away, including Taylor Timmons (NT) and Ryan Langford (LB). The secondary looks very solid with 3 starters back and all 3 being seniors, while Brett Bowers will lead a decent DL after leading the team in sacks last year with 6.

Pick:  I can see this game going under the total here. Both teams will have weak defenses this year but also both teams have no reall passing games to speak of. Both will run the ball allot in this one and that should keep the clock moving. Just very hard to see 60+ p[oints being scored in this one, especially with a clock that won't stop all that much. 

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