Thursday night College football and we will see the Boise State Broncos take on the Mississippi Rebels at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. The game has a start time of 8:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN. Current Vegas odds have the Rebels listed as 11 point favorites, while the total is set at 53.5.
Analysis: The Mississippi Rebels went 2-10 back in 2011, and then they hired Hugh Freeze, who has taken them to bowl games in back-to-back years now. This year could be his best yet with 60 lettermen, including 15 starters back and the 16th best recruiting class in the nation coming in. The Rebels averaged a modest 30 ppg last year, and I look for them to put a few more points on the board this year with 6 starters back, including QB Bo Wallace, who threw for 3348 yards and 18 TDs last year. His top WR from last year is gone, but 4 players are back that has at least 21 receptions and 266 yards receiving last year, plus they add in a #30 WR out of HS in Markell Pack. The running game will be decent with I’Tavius Mathers and Jaylon Walton back. The defense for the Rebels looks to be outstanding this year, as they have 31 lettermen, including 9 starters back from a group that allowed 23.7 ppg last year. The defense is led by the Nkemdiche brothers, who combined for 69 tackles, 2 sacks and 8 TFL last year and should only be better this year.
The Boise State Broncos piled up 5 losses last year, which was their most since 1998. It was Chris Petersen’s last year at the helm, as he has moved on to Washington. In steps Bryan Harsin, who inherits a veteran team that should have a great shot at winning the MWC, which they have yet to do since joining the league in 2011. The Broncos are used to putting up 40+ ppg on offense, but have failed to do so in each of the last 2 years. That should change this year with 7 starters back, including QB Grant Hendrick, who threw for 1825 yards, with 16 TDs and 5 INTs last year. Matt Miller and Shane Williams-Rhodes form a nice duo in the passing game, while their leading rusher from last year returns in Jay Ajayi, after he ran for 1425 yards and 12 TDs. Last year the defense allowed more than 18.7 ppg for the first time since 2007, as they allowed 24.8 ppg. This year they look to rebound with 25 of 31 lettermen back, which includes 8 starters. All three starters the defense has lost comes from the DL, but still this unit has 4 players that combined for 23.5 TFL last year and is rated as 2nd best in the MWC. The back 7 for the Broncos will be very good as they have all 7 starters back, including DBs Bryan Douglas, Darian Thompson and Donte Deayon, who combined for 19 PBUs and 14 INTs last year.
Pick: The Mississippi Rebels return QB Bo Wallace, but also lose 2 of their top 3 WRs from last year and the replacements are rather inexperienced. The Rebels also have some questions along the offense and their running game is average at best. this is not a team that will win many games with just their offense. Its a good thing they don't have to because they have a defense that will have one of the best in the SEC, if not nation. Led by the Nkemdiche brothers this defense is stacked with 9 starters back, while overall they return 85.4% of their tackles from last year, which is 3rd in the nation. The Boise offense does not look like it will be as explosive as in years past. They do have Grant Hendrick back at QB and their top WR and top RB from last year do return, but this is also a team that is going through a coaching change,plus they have questions along the OL, where just 26 career starts return, which is 121st in the nation. Defense is not what one thinks when they think of the Broncos, but every year this defense is underrated and have allowed 18.7 ppg or less in 5 of their last 6 years. Last year was their worst as they allowed 24.8 ppg, but also had just 4 starters back. This year they have 8 starters back and overall return 82.8% off their tackles, which is 8th in the nation. The Under is 4-1 in Mississippi's last 5 games on Thursday, while the Under is 4-1 In Boise's last 5 games on Fieldturf. I see this one in the mid to lower 40's at best.
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