The first round of the NBA Playoffs continues on Sunday afternoon and we will see Dallas Mavericks travel to the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas to take on the San Antonio Spurs in game 7 of their best-of seven series. The game has a start time of 3:30 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ABC. Vegas odds have the Spurs listed as 6.5 point favorites, while the total sits at 198.5.
Stat Packs: The Dallas Mavericks came into the series as the 8th seed in the West and had lost 9 in a row to the Spurs overall, but they now they will be playing for a chance to move on in this game 7. The Mavericks are a decent 24-20 on the road this year and they have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 4 trips to San Antonio. During the regular season Dallas was ranked 8th in scoring (104.8 ppg) and 4th in shooting (47.4%), and vs the Spurs so far they have put up a decent 102 ppg on 45.9% shooting from the floor. During the playoffs it has been Monta Ellis that has led them in scoring, putting up 21.8 ppg, while Dirk Nowitzki (18.7 ppg), Vince Carter (13.0 ppg), Jose Calderon (11.3 ppg) and Devin Harris (10.5 ppg) round out the double digit scorers on the team. Samuel Dalambert has been solid on the boards, with 8.8 rpg. Defensively, this wasn’t a great team this year, as they ranked 20th in points allowed (102.4 ppg), but they have been a bit better in the playoffs allowing a high powered Spurs team just 100.5 ppg so far.
The San Antonio Spurs had the best record in all of the NBA this year, but the Dallas Mavericks have taken it to the so far and now the Spurs have to play a game 7 to move on in the first round of the playoffs. The Spurs have gone 34-10 SU at home this year, but the host in this series has gone 4-9 ATS the last 13 games in the series. The Spurs were a solid offensive team overall this year, as they ranked 6th in scoring (105.4 ppg), but vs the Mavs in this series they have been able to score just 100.5. Leading the Spurs in scoring in the playoffs is Tony Parker, who has averged 17.8 ppg, while Tim Duncan (17.7 ppg) and Manu Ginobili (17.3 ppg) are close behind. Tiago Spplitter (12.3 ppg) and Kawhi Leonard (11.3 ppg) have also averaged in double figures for the Spurs. Defensively this was a solid team this year, ranking 6th in points allowed (97.6 ppg) and 8th in defensive FG% defense (44.4%), but vs Dallas they have allowed 102 ppg on 45.9% shooting.
Pick: Going with the Over. I know I like to play Unders in game 7s, but in this case we will go the other way. Both teams have been more comefortable in this series when they push tempo and I see that happening here. The Mavs have averaged 102.1 ppg on the road this year, while the Spurs have put up 105.7 ppg at home, and we note that the last 2 games in this series has seen 212 and 224 points put up and without OT. Both teams will run here and with this being a game 7 we will also get the FT's at the end of the game, especially if the Spurs are up by 6 to 10 late. Not sure we will need those FT's at the end. I expect 205+ here.
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