Thursday night baseball and we will see the Milwaukee Brewers take on the Pittsburgh Pirates in game 1 of their 4 game series from PNC Park in Philadelphia, PA. First pitch is scheduled for a 7:05 PM (Eastern) start time and the game will be televised locally.
Current Odds
Milwaukee -105
Pittsburgh -105
Over/ Under: 7 U -125
Analysis: The Brewers have been one of the best teams out the gate, as they come in at 11-4 overall, which includes a perfect 6-0 mark on the road. The Brewers do come in off a home series vs the Cardinals, in which they lost 2 of the 3 games played. Milwaukee's offense has been middle of the pack so far as they are 14th in scoring (4.20 rpg),10th in hitting (.253) and 16th in homers (13). Aramis Ramirez leads the team in hitting (.377) and RBIs (13), while Carlos Gomez leads the team in homers (4). Pitching is where this team has made their money in the early going, as they come in ranked 1st in ERA (2.17) and 1st in WHIP (1.01). Yovani Gallardo comes in with 3 starts under his belt this year and he is 2-0 with an 0.96 ERA in those starts. He is, though, 1-2 with a 3.00 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Pirates. The Brewers are 16-4 in his last 20 starts vs Pittsburgh.
For Pittsburgh, they have not gotten off to the kind of start they were hoping for, as they are 7-8 on the year. They are 4-2 at home for the year and 7-2 at home in the last 9 games in this series. Pittsburgh has been a team that searches for an offense year after year and this one is no different, as they come in 21st in scoring (3.80 rpg) and 28th in hitting (.223). Surprisingly they are 4th in homers with 19. Pedro Alvarez led the team in homers last year with 36 and has 5 so far this year to also lead the team. Andrew McCutchen is off to a rather slow start, hitting just .268, with 0 HRs and 5 RBIs so far. They need more production from him and he has hit .325 with 2 HRs in 40 ABs off of Gallardo in his career. Getting the ball for Pittsburgh tonight is Edinson Volquez, who is 0-0- with a 1.29 ERA in 2 starts this year. He is also 2-1 with a 2.93 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Brewers.
Pick: Going with the Under here. One team has a poor offense and one has a mediocre offense, while both teams have excellent starters on the mound and they will be pitching in pitcher-friendly PNC Park, in weather that is not good hitting weather. That's a recipe for a pitcher's duel. Yovani Gallardo has posted an 0.96 ERA in 3 starts this year and he has a 2.61 ERA in 21 appearances (20 starts) in his career vs the Pirates, including a 1.89 ERA in 9 appearances (8 starts) in this park. His last 3 starts in this park have averaged just 4.7 rpg. Edinson Volquez comes in allowing just 1 ER in each of his two starts this year and he should have success vs a Brewers team that has averaged just 2.8 rpg in their last 6 games. The weather will be in the 40s or maybe even lower and that is not good hitting weather at all, which should give two very good pitchers the advantage in a park that already doesn't yield too many runs.
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Handicapping Tips: Baseball Correlations
Steve Fezzik from Pregame.com gives some handicapping tips for betting runlines and correlated parlays in major league baseball.