NCAA basketball on Saturday night and we will see the San Diego Aztecs travel to The Pit in New Mexico to take on the Newq Mexico Lobos. The game has a start time of 10:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN 2. Vegas odds have the Lobos listed as 4 point favorites, while the total sits at 132.
Analysis: The San Diego State Aztecs have had a fine year posting a 23-3 mark overall and a 12-1 mark with in the MWC. Since losing their lone MWC game at Wyoming, the Aztecs have come back with two straight wins. San Diego State is know for a stifling defense that has allowed just 56.6 ppg on the year to rank 3rd in the nation, while also ranking 4th in defensive FG% overall (37.6%) and 7th in 3pt defense (27.8%). This is one tough defense , while on the other end of the floor they have an offense that does just enough to win. On offense the Aztecs average just 72 ppg on 43.9% shooting. they are led by Xavier Thames and his 17.1 ppg, while Josh Davis leads the team in rebounding at 10.7 rpg. The Aztecs have won 29 straight games when shooting at a higher percentage than their opponent.
The Lobos come in having won 8 of their last 89 games with that lone loss being by just 1 point at Boise State. The Lobos are 19-5 overall and 10-2 with in the MWC. New Mexico is a very good offensive team as they have averaged 76.4 ppg to rank 56th in the nation. They are also one of the better FT shooting teams in nation, hitting 73.2% from the charity stripe. 3 players average in double figures for the Lobos, led by Cameron Bairstow, who averages 20.2 ppg. He is joined by Kendall Williams (17.6 ppg) and Alex Kirk (14.3 ppg) as the only other DD scorers on the team. On defense the Lobos have allowed 69 ppg, but they are 25th in the nation in defensive FG%, allowing teams to hit just 39.6% of their shots.
Pick: Going with the Under in this one. Really just one team can score in this game and that same team is the only one that tries to really score and that is New Mexico. The Lobos average 78 ppg at home, but have yet to play a defense of this caliber and the only slow down team they played at home was Wyoming and they scored just 66 points in that one, needing OT to do it. It will not be easy for the Lobos to score in this one as the Aztecs are one of the best defensive teams in the Nation, allowing just 58.2 ppg overall and 63.2 ppg on the road. On offense, the Aztecs will slow the pace and they have averaged just 65.2 ppg in their last 5 games, while the Lobos have allowed just 61.6 ppg over that same stretch. This is a huge game in the MWC and I feel both teams will be a bit tight here. This should also be a close game which could have the teams walking the ball up for most of the last 10 minutes.
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