NCAA basketball on Thursday night and we will see the Arkansas Razorbacks travel to Columbia. Missouri to take on the Missouri Tigers. The game has a start time of 7:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN 2. Vegas odds have the Missouri listed as 5 point favorites, while the total sits at 150.
Analysis: The Arkansas Razorbacks come in at 15-8 overall, but they are just 4-5 in the SEC in 1-4 in their true road games this year. Arkansas Has historically struggled away from home going 22-54 ATS in their last 76 road games. The Hogs have one of the stronger offenses in the nation, scoring a healthy 81 ppg overall, but on the road not so great, as they have averaged just 67.8 ppg away from home this year. Arkansas is a pretty deep team with 12 players that score at least 3 ppg. The offense is led by Bobby Portis, who puts in 13 ppg, while also leading the team in rebounding at 6.6 rpg. Rashad Madden (12.7 ppg) and Michael Qualls (11.5 ppg) round out the double digit scorers for the team. On defense is where the Hogs struggle, as they allow 70.2 ppg, which is 179th in the nation, depsite the fact tat they are 56th in defensive FG% (40.5%).
The Missouri Tigers come in having lost 3 in a row to fall to 16-7 overall and 4-6 with in the SEC. They have been a strong club at home this year, going 10-2 on the year here. Missouri has been a solid offensive squad this year, ranking 90th in the nation in scoring (74.8 ppg) and 84th in shooting (46.2%). The Tigers are led by Jabari Brown, who scores 20.1 ppg, while Jordan Clarkson (18.9 ppg) and Earnest Ross (14.1 ppg) round out the double digit scorers for this team. Not much depth on the tigers as the 4th leading scorer (Johnathan Williams III) averages just 6.2 ppg. The Tigers are a solid defensive squad allowing just 68.4 ppg (129th) on just 40% shooting (40th).
Pick: Liking the Under in this one. These teams have played some high scoring games vs each other, but I don't see this one hitting the 150's at all, especially with the way Arkansas scores on the road. The Razorbacks have averaged 81 ppg overall this year, but away from home they have struggled, scoring just 67.8 pg on 38.9% shooting. Getting much more than that will be hard vs a Missouri squad that plays excellent defense at home, allowing just 64.6 ppg on 38.6% shooting. The Arkansas defense has struggled this year, especially away from home, but Missouri has averaged just 74.9 ppg on their home floor this year, including just 71.3 ppg (Reg) in their 4 SEC home games. Arkansas road games have averaged just 143.6 ppg, while Missouri home games have averaged just 139.5 ppg. Plenty of value here on the under and I expect a 74-69 type of game.
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