College Football Week 1 continues tonight and we will see the Texas-San Antonio Road Runners travel to New Mexico to take on the New Mexico Lobos. The start time is 8:00 pm (Eastern) and the game will be televised locally. Current Odds have New Mexico listed as 3.5 point favorites, while the total sits at 55.5.
Analysis: Larry Coker, who won a national championship at Miami, took UTSA to an 8-4 mark in just their 2nd season of existence and first year in the FBS. Last year the Roadrunners went 3-3 in the sun Belt, to fins 4th in the league and this year they take a step up in competition with their move to Conference USA. Senior QB Eric Soza (2085 yards, 20 TD's 3 INT's) returns to lead an offense that put up 31.2 ppg last year. Soza also rushed for six scores and averaged 5.4 yards per carry. He will have plenty of weapons in the WR corps as their top 8 pass catchers from last year return. UTSA brings back eight defensive starters from a group that held only 2 FBS teams Idaho (123rd in scoring) and New Mexico State (114th is scoring) to under 30 points all year. he secondary could be a strength, with 3 starters back and all 4 players are upperclassmen, while the DL is solid with 3 Jrs starting.
The Lobos had won just 3 total games in the three years prior to the hiring of Bob Davie, but Bob changed all that last year, by taking them to a 4-9 record. This year could be a bit tougher, with just 10 starters back, including 4 on defense. Cole Gautsche will take over as the full-time starter at QB after throwing for 222 yards with two touchdowns, while running for 760 yards last year. Last year this offense put up 301 ypg on the ground and their leader of the ground attack is Kasey Carrier, who ran for 1,469 yards and 15 touchdowns a year ago. With the offensive line returning four starters, the power running game should be very good again for this squad. Defensively the Lobos allowed 30.2 ppg last year, but that was still an 11.5 ypg improvement over 2011. The DL losses two starters, but returns the heart and soul of the unit in Jacori Greer, who had 5 sacks last year. The LBs will be the strength of the defense with Dallas Bollema, Rashad Rainey and Javarie Johnson, but the secondary loses 3 starters and will probably struggle again.
Pick: For a team that does nothing but runs the ball like New Mexico does, you would expect plenty of low scoring games, but their games last year actually averaged 56 ppg. The Aggies ran for 301 ypg and scored 25.8 ppg a year ago. 25.8 ppg is pretty solid, considering the fact that they threw for just 69 ypg (not a typo) last year. This year the core of that running game is back as Kasey Carrier returns after putting up 1469 yards on 5.8 ypc last year. QB Cole Gautsche is back as well and is a true dual threat QB. Last year he threw for just 222, but added 760 yards on a solid 7.0 ypc. He was not the full time starting QB, but the job is fully his this year. Oh and that running game has the luxury of running behind the 2nd best OL in the league. UTSA did OK vs the run last year, but that was cause they played in the pass happy WAC, and also because their pass defense was so poor. The only team they played last year with a good ground game was Texas State (179 ypg) and they allowed 299 yards in that game. This year they have 8 starters back on defense, but both their DL and DB's rate as second worse in a weak Conference USA. The Roadrunner offense also rates low in Conference USA, but they do have 10 starters back from a group that averaged 31.2 ppg and they will be tacking on a New Mexico defense that allowed 30.2 ppg and 444 ypg last year and brings back just 4 starters from that group this year. I just feel that both teams will come out and put up some big points on a couple of weak defenses.
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