Continuing with my CFB Previews, we will take a look at the Big 12 today. Texas won the Big 12 in 2009. OU won in 2010. OSU won in 2011. Kansas State won in 2012 — OK, the Wildcats tied OU but beat the Sooners, earning the automatic berth in the Fiesta Bowl. That's quite a run of parity. Four schools winning the championship in four seasons and If TCU, picked to contend, wins in 2013, that would be five in five. I don't think they will, as I look for Texas to take the 2013 Big 12 Title. I have my predictions for each team in order of how I feel they will finish.
Texas Longhorns: Texas has struggled in the conference the last three years, but coach Mack Brown might have his best team since the 2009 squad that lost in the BCS national championship game. The longhorns have plenty of skill players on offense, while their defense will be one of the best in the country. Texas has an excellent shot at running the table and playing in the BCS title game, but at the very least I expect them to walk away with the Big 12 Title. Key Trends: 10-2 ATS as road dogs of 2 or more if off a SU win... 2-11 ATS with revenge vs opponent off BB SU wins... 7-1 ATS last 8 games at TCU.
Oklahoma State Cowboys: This team is ready to make another run at the Big 12 title this year. There are seniors all over the place, making them one of the most experienced teams in the nation. With the Big 12 replacing a lot of players in a lot of different areas this season, it’s important for the Cowboys to use their experience to their advantage. Oklahoma State is good enough to win the league. The question is can the defense improve, because the offense will surely put up plenty of points. I expect the defense to improve, especially since they have 9 starters back and return 23 of 26 lettermen on that side of the ball overall. Because of their offensive prowess and nice schedule, the Cowboys could be in line for 10 wins once again after only getting eight in 2012, and be a serious contender for the Big 12 title. Key Trends: 13-0 ATS as road favs of 26 or less if off BB SU wins... 12-1 ATS at home vs an opponent off BB SU losses... 9-2 ATS last 11 games vs Kansas.
TCU Hornd Frogs: The 2012 season was a year of transition for the TCU Horned Frogs. TCU did show that they could compete in a BCS conference and they proved they could win on the road with all four Big 12 wins coming away from home. That said, TCU did very well against the big boys and with a very good and talented defense returning, plus an offense that will get it's QB back, this should be an even tougher team to beat this year. Look for them to be a serious threat to win the Big 12 title. Key Trends: 7-0 ATS off a DD spread loss... 11-1 ATS as favorites vs an opponent off BB SU losses... 0-5 ATS after playing Texas.
Oklahoma Sooners: Obviously, quarterback is a concern for the Sooners, after losing Landry Jones. Blake Bell is a talented QB, but is not really proven that he can run the offense on a full time basis. The defense is also a big question mark as they return just 4 starters overall and 1 of their top 5 tacklers. The front 7 will need to be almost completely rebuilt, while their secondary has just 1 starter back as well. Combine those concerns with a schedule that offers its share of so-called trap games, and this Oklahoma team is looking at a potentially difficult year. They won’t fall off the map. But I don’t think they’ll win the league, either. Eight or nine wins sounds about right. Key Trends: 9-0 ATS after playing Texas Tech... 3-7 ATS last 10 games vs Baylor... 9-0 ATS at home before BB road games.
Baylor Bears: The schedule will be tough for the bears, specially in their final five games, which will include Back-to-back road games vs Oklahoma State and TCU plus matchups against Oklahoma and Texas. Even a game with Texas Tech at Cowboys Stadium will be a tough one. The Offense has some question marks, as they have just 5 starers back and must replace Nick Florence at QB. Bryce Petty has some talent but the skill players will need to step up to give him some help. Hindering him some is the fact that just 1 starter returns to the OL. Defense has 7 starters back but is that good news as that group has allowed 37.2 ppg in each of the last 2 years. Baylor will be exciting on offense, but it will be their defense and the final stretch of their schedule that will keep them from moving up in the standing. 6 or 7 wins at most here. Key Trends: 8-0 ATS as favorites of 18 or less vs a sub .500 opponent... 0-7 ATS last 7 games at Oklahoma State... 2-10 ATS before playing Oklahoma.
Kansas State Wildcats: Kansas State returns 8 starters to an offense that put up 38.8 ppg last year, but it will be hard for them to replace QB Collin Klien. It looks as if Jake Waters will take over at QB, and he does have sonme talent around him with the top RB and 6 of their top 8 pass caters back from a year ago. Defense is where they will struggle most as they have just 2 starters back and 19 of 34 letterman overall on that side of the ball. This year will be a challenge because of the personnel that they have lost and even though it's bill Snyder at the helm, I expect the Wildcats to fall to the second half of the Big 12 standings. Key Trends: 8-1 last 9 games at Texas... 16-0 ATS first of BB home games if opponent has revenge... 1-6 ATS as road favorites of 6 or more.
West Virginia Mountaineers: The Mountaineers return just 4 starters on offense, but in Dan Holgorsen's system it should be much of a problem for this team to still produce. The OL is looking very good and they do have their top RB back from last year, but a QB must be found and they did lose their top 3 WR's from last year. They will put up points but I don't see 39.5 ppg like the did last year. WVA's defense was horrendous last year so their is no where to go but up for this group. They allowed 38.1 ppg and 474 ypg last year and with 7 starters back this should be an improved group. Thde road slate for them is brutal, with games at Oklahoma, Baylor, TCU and Kansas State, and it's that road slate that could just keep this team on the sidelines for bowl season. Key Trends: 10-0 ATS vs an opponent off a SU favorite loss... 13-1 ATS at conference dogs of 2 or more... 3-12 ATS at home vs an opponent off DD SU loss.
Texas Tech Red Raiders: I think this team will see some real peaks and valleys. Expect them to win a game or two they are not supposed to and expect for them to get caught by a team they probably think they should beat. There are some young pieces on offense to watch closely in the future, from the quarterbacks through the receivers and the line; there are nice pieces on defense, though I do think it'll be a painful process to the 3-4. Texas Tech will have some struggles this year, but If a few things go right they have a shot at six wins on the year. Key Trends: 1-6-1 ATS last 8 games vs Oklahoma State... 12-2 ATS before playing Texas... 5-1 ATS in first of BB road games.
Iowa State Cyclones: The Cyclones have made it to a bowl in 3 of their last 4 years, but this is a team with a ton of holes to fill before they can think of making it back to a bowl game. The Clyclones return just 5 starters to an offense that put up just 24.5 ppg last year. The running game looks solid but they must replace their QB and top 3 WR's from a year ago. The OL should be solid with 3 starters back and some depth. Defense last year this team allowed 23.9 ppg, but they have just 4 starters back from that group, so I expect a drop on that side of the ball. I do not see this team getting bowl eligible this year. Key Trends: 12-3 ATS last 15 vs Iowa... 5-0 ATS after playing Oklahoma State... 0-5 ATS off BB SU & ATS wins.
Kansas Jayhawks: Kansas will be the most inexperienced team in the Big 12 in 2013. They return the fewer number of letter winners in the league. Charlie Weis has been all over the JUCO recruiting game so many of the new starters aren’t completely new to college football. The guys that have moved on from Lawrence went 3-9, 2-10 and 1-11 in their last three years so it’s not like they will be missed too much. The Jayhawks will look better and improved, but no mote than one win in the Big 12 should mean they will take up residence in the basement once again. Key Trends: 10-1 ATS at home vs sub .500 opponents... 1-11 ATS after playing Oklahoma... 1-9 ATS before playing Texas.
Big 12 Win Total Play--- Iowa State Under 5.5 (-150, Bovada)
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