Game 1 of the NBA Finals between the San Antonio Spurs & the Miami Heat takes place tonight in South Beach. The game is scheduled for a 9:05 PM (Eastern) start time and will be televised on ESPN. Currently the Odds for the game have Miami favored by 5 points while the total sits at 188.5.
Analysis: The Spurs are in the midst of quite a postseason, going 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS (71%). They have outscored opponents by 10.1 PPG and outshot them 47% FG to 42% FG. Part of this great shooting has come from an unselfish and careful offense that has 23.6 APG and just 12.0 TOPG (1.96 Ast/TO ratio). Defensively, the team has generated 8.3 SPG and 5.4 BPG, which has helped make up for a minus-2.7 RPG margin during this postseason. The tandem of Parker and Duncan will determine whether San Antonio prevails. Parker had one of the top seasons of any point guard in the NBA and the 37-year-old Duncan has experienced a terrific campaign for someone of his age. Parker is averaging 23 points and 7.2 rebounds in the postseason while Duncan is chipping in 17.8 points and 9.2 rebounds. And both have also shined in previous NBA Finals, as Parker has averaged 16.4 PPG (47% FG) and 3.6 APG over three Finals, while Duncan has posted an outstanding 22.7 PPG, 14.4 RPG, 3.4 APG and 3.0 BPG during four championship runs in four tries. Another key figure will be second-year forward Kawhi Leonard, who draws the task of guarding James. Ginobili is still capable of hitting the clutch shots despite his diminishing skills and the solid supporting cast includes Green, center Tiago Splitter and 3-point threat Matt Bonner.
Miami is 12-4 SU and 9-7 ATS this postseason, but has really been struggling offensively. In the regular season, the team failed shot below 40% FG just once in 82 games (38% FG on Nov. 11 at Memphis), but in the past four contests, the club has failed to reach 40% shooting three times. After shooting a season-worst 36.1% FG in the Game 6 loss, the Heat improved to just 39.5% FG in the Game 7 clincher. However, the defense has been consistently excellent all postseason, holding opponents to 87.6 PPG on 42.9% FG and 32.5% threes. Miami has generated 8.1 SPG and 5.6 BPG, while carrying a strong 1.50 Ast/TO ratio with 20.3 APG and 13.5 TOPG during the playoffs. James has been terrific in the postseason – averaging 26.2 points and 7.3 rebounds – and Wade (14.1 average) has struggled while being hindered by an ailing knee. James carried Miami during the Indiana series and could really use some help from center Chris Bosh. The third member of the “Big Three” has delivered smallish production in the postseason as Bosh averaged just seven points over the final four games of the Indiana series while shooting 8-for-34. “My confidence never goes anywhere,” said Bosh, despite a postseason in which he is averaging just 12.3 points. “It never wavers. It’s always the same. I feel that I’m always capable of playing well.” Chalmers draws the assignment of slowing Parker and other strong contributors include Udonis Haslem and Chris Andersen in the frontcourt and Ray Allen and Norris Cole in the backcourt.
Pick: I will go with the Spurs in this one. This is their best chance to steal one in Miami I feel. The Heat are off a very physical series with the Pacers, while the Spurs were resting all week. That negates the age vs youth factor. You can also bet that Popovich will look to employ the same physical type of play that the Pacers did on the Heat and that should wear this team down, especially in game 1.The Heat have struggled in their last 2 game 1's and I expect them to do so here as well.
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NBA Free Picks: San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat Betting
What pro basketball bettors need to know about San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat on Thursday (6/06/13) - a free pick from Pregame.com's Vegas Runner, with Bryan Leonard.