The Western Conference Finals between the Memphis Grizzlies and the San Antonio Spurs takes place in Memphis, Tennessee for Game 4 tonight. The game is scheduled for a 9:05 PM (Eastern) start time and will be televised on ESPN. Currently the Odds for the game have Memphis favored by 3.5 points while the total sits at 180.5.
Analysis: San Antonio blew a 2-0 lead in last season’s West finals when losing to Oklahoma City, and the players repeatedly expressed they were highly intent on not giving the Grizzlies any life. But Game 3 featured the Spurs falling behind by 18 points in the opening quarter and never leading until the fourth quarter before dominating overtime in the 104-93 win. The Spurs have been very efficient on offense during their five-game win streak, averaging 101.0 PPG on 49% FG and 41% threes. The team has also tallied 26.8 APG and just 13.0 TOPG during this span, which equates to a stellar 2.06 Ast/TO ratio. Veteran power forward Tim Duncan denies he feels an urgency about returning to the NBA Finals due to his age, but the 37-year-old sent out different signals with his stellar play in Game 3. Duncan scored seven of his 24 points in overtime and also had 10 rebounds and five assists in a tremendous performance that represented his 144th postseason double-double, second all-time behind Magic Johnson (157). “I’m not worried about how old I am or whatever, whatever it may be,” Duncan said. “I’m very focused on having another opportunity to make it to a championship (round) and try to win. That’s all.”
The Memphis Grizzlies are in the deepest hole imaginable. No team in NBA history has won a playoff series after losing the first three games. Memphis hadn’t lost at home in the postseason and will attempt to avoid back-to-back FedExForum defeats to keep the series alive. “It’s more than just basketball here,” point guard Mike Conley told reporters on Sunday. “We owe it to ourselves, owe it to the fans not to get swept and get embarrassed on our home court.” The Grizzlies offense has really struggled since the first round of the playoffs, scoring just 91.6 PPG on 39.7% FG over the past eight games. In this series, the team has a paltry 88.3 PPG on 38.4% FG, and has been outshot by at least nine percent (53% to 43% FG, 43% to 34% FG and 50% to 39% FG) in each of the three defeats. But the defense is still capable of winning games for this club, holding three of the six playoff visitors to 83 points or less, and tallying 8.3 SPG in the past seven contests, including 10 steals in Game 3. Memphis was sharp early in Game 3 and seemed fresher than the veteran Spurs after a three-day break. The role was reversed late in the game and in the overtime dominated by San Antonio. “I think in overtime we were just worn down,” Grizzlies coach Lionel Hollins told reporters on Sunday. “Not that they’re not, it’s just we’re more worn down. We have to play hard … We leave it all on the court.” Memphis could have avoided overtime but Conley took a poor angle on a last-second driving shot in regulation and missed badly. Power forward Zach Randolph had 14 points and 15 rebounds after shooting a combined 7-for-26 over the first two games.
Pick: I will be taking the over in this one. The Spurs have been able to get the pace of this series where they want it and in looking for the sweep here they will look to continue that uptempo game. It also should be a close game and if Memphis is down near they end they will look to foul till the end. Let's also note that two of the games in this series has gone to OT, and that is possible again. Memphis home games have been low scoring this year, but they do know they need to score a bit more in this one if they hope to stave off elimination. Both teams will play a good pace, we should also get a lot of fouls and possibly OT to boot. All that should lead to at least 185 points.
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