The last team will punch their ticket to the Final Four tonight as the Duke Blue Devils face the Louisville Cardinals at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. The game is scheduled for a 5:05 PM start time and will be televised live on CBS. Current Betting Odds have Louisville as a favorite of 3.5 to 4 points, depending on the book.
Current Odds
Louisville -3.5 (-110)
Duke +3.5 (-110)
Total: Over/Under 137 (-110)
Analysis: The Cardinals have won 13 straight games going back to the regular season and have lived up to the hype as the No. 1 overall seed thanks in part to a total of 81 points in three NCAA Tournament games by Smith. Smith’s 81 points are the most for a Cardinals player in the first three games of the NCAA Tournament. The Cardinals were without center Gorgui Dieng in the November meeting with Duke, but Peyton Siva collected 19 points and six steals and Smith scored 17 to keep things close. Dieng is shooting 87.5 percent in the Tournament and should make things more difficult for Plumlee this time around. Louisville has won its 13 straight games by an average of 17.3 points but was sluggish in the Sweet 16 win over Oregon because of a cold virus making its way through the squad. Smith had the worst of it Friday but still managed 31 points in the 77-69 victory. Siva spent most of the game in foul trouble but backup point guard Kevin Ware went 5-for-7 off the bench in his place. The Cardinals are largely the same team that reached the Final Four last season, though Smith has taken on a greater role.
After being bounced by a No. 15 seed last season, the Blue Devils are trying to make their first Final Four appearance since winning the National Championship in 2010. Duke can match Smith and Louisville shot for shot with Seth Curry, who went for 29 points in the Sweet 16 victory over Michigan State and is 10-for-20 from 3-point range in the Tournament. Blue Devils coach Mike Krzyzewski has not faced Louisville coach Rick Pitino in the NCAA Tournament since Christian Laettner’s historic shot against Kentucky in the 1992 Elite Eight ended one of the greatest college basketball games ever. Krzyzewski’s 2012-13 team is not quite the same, but it does have a plethora of scoring options. Curry was just the latest to take over for Duke after sharing the scoring load with Mason Plumlee in the opening game of the Tournament and letting freshman Rasheed Sulaimon take over in the third-round victory over Creighton. Sulaimon attacking the paint helped open things up for Curry to hit six 3-pointers in the 71-61 victory over the Spartans on Friday. All five starters scored at least 14 points the last time the Blue Devils faced the Cardinals, with Plumlee’s 16 points leading the way in a 76-71 victory in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament on Nov. 24.
Pick: Gonna go with the team that I felt has been the best team in the nation down the stretch. Louisville has been a very dominant down the stretch, going 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS since their loss to the Irish. They have outscored their opponents by 17 ppg during the win streak and have held 11 of those opponents to 61 points or less. Duke has not been as impressive down the stretch. Duke Has gone 6-2 SU in their last 8 games, but just 4-4 ATS, while losing to Virginia on the road and Maryland in the ACC tournament, plus they struggled with Albany in their opening game of the NCAA Tournament, in those last 8 games. Lets also note that despite the fact that Duke beat Louisville earlier in the year, they are still 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 games vs the Big East. The Offenses can put points on the board, but I feel that Louisville has a decided edge on defense. Louisville's defenses is number 1 in the country in terms of efficiency. Duke's is 17th, but they do allow 7.2 ppg more than the Cardinals do. Both teams are 9-1 in neutral site games this year, but Duke has allowed 64 ppg in those games, while the Cardinals have allowed just 58.1. Away from home this year Duke has allowed 70 ppg on 47% shooting, while the Cardinals have allowed 60.2 ppg on 37.9% shooting when taking to the road. The Cardinals have the clear edge on defense and that defense has carried them for much of the year and it will do so again here. Late FT's has Louisville pulling away for a 7-10 points win.
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