The top two teams in the NFC South get after it in Sunday NFL Football as the Atlanta Falcons travel to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The game is scheduled for a 1:00 p.m. start time and it will be televised live on FOX. Currently the odds for the game have the Falcons favored by 1.5 points.
Classic game here of a good team going into a situation that they won't like. The Atlanta Falcons are one of the best teams in football, but they play considerably better when they are at home, in a dome. Sure, they're 4-1 on the road as well, but today's matchup pits them against a rival team, on the road, playing on grass. This should be a good spot to take a look at Tampa Bay.
A closer look into some information, we see that Atlanta is favored anywhere from 1.5 to 3 points, depending on the book. That tells us that the oddsmakers aren't completely sure about where this game is going to come out, but that several of the books believe Tampa Bay is going to hang around. Taking home underdogs at home has been a recipe for success for us the past three seasons or so, and if the Buccaneers line keeps getting higher and they get more than a field goal, it's almost an automatic play for us.
One reason we really like Tampa Bay today is they are hot right now. They've gone 5-1 in their last six games, beating the likes of Minnesota, Oakland, Carolina and Carolina last week for four straight wins. Their recipe for success (there's that phrase again) is simple — they run the ball effectively and on defense they stop people from being able to run the ball at all. The Buccaneers are the No. 1 team in the NFL against the run this season, allowing just under 82 yards per game to their opponents. That's pretty good.
Josh Freeman has thrown for at least 2 TDs in each of the last six games for Tampa Bay. He's really helped lead the turnaround for this team, which has an NFC-leading 34.2 points in their recent stretch. A huge factor in this streak has been Doug Martin, who has run for 592 yards and five touchdowns over the past four weeks. Him, with the great play of the offensive line, has really pushed Tampa Bay into talking about possibly being a playoff team this year.
But don't forget so soon about Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Sure, he threw five picks in last week's win over the Cardinals, but the Falcons were still able to come back and win the football game. That's what impresses us about Ryan — he has a knack for winning football games and does what he needs to in order for his team to get the job done. However, he might not be throwing to receiver Julio Jones today, who is battling an ankle injury. Jones will be a game-time decision for Atlanta.
Many think Atlanta is in a position to easily win this football game. Yet, the Falcons are just 2-2 in their last four trips to Tampa Bay. Ryan has five touchdowns and seven INTs in those four games.
Look for the Tampa Bay offense so slow this game down and run the ball well. If they keep Ryan on the sidelines, it's going to be one of those games where it feels like Atlanta is playing from behind the entire game, even if they are tied. We like that. We're going to scoop up the points and take the hot team at home in this one. Running the ball and playing tough rush defense get the job done today for Tampa.
Free Pick: Tampa Bay 21, Atlanta 17
NFL Free Picks Atlanta at Tampa Bay Betting
What pro football bettors need to know about Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday (11/25/12) - a free pick from Pregame.com's Vegas Runner, with Chuck Edel and host Chris Andrews.
-$25 of picks FREE! No Obligation - No Credit Card Required - Becoming a member is Fast and Free!
Jumbo Bulk Dollars are BACK! Bulk Dollars: $500 Gets You $1000-- Click Here
Get more Free Picks from the Pregame Pros HERE.