Before Denver's game against Philadelphia, I wrote an article about the game, where I exposed some of the problems that Denver would have in that matchup:
"We know very well Denver's style on court: push the pace, score in transition and attack the rim non-stop. This has always been George Karl's formula in Denver and this season won't be an exception to that. The problem is that Philadelphia's defense from last season would always be a tough opponent for them, as I remember that Philadelphia was #1 in points in the paint allowed with 36.4 points and also #1 in fast break points allowed per game with just 10.2 points. Jrue Holliday is the best defensive PG in the league and so, Ty Lawson will struggle tonight."
Denver had a great defensive game against Philadelphia by leaving the home team with just 84 points scored, however they were terrible on offense by getting completely outplayed against the great 76ers' defense. The Nuggets need to create easy chance points near the basket and Philadelphia just clogged the paint! In the first half, Denver attempted 25 shots from inside the paint, but they just made 7 of them: 7-25 FG!!! In the second half, the Nuggets shot 9-20 FG inside the paint, for a combined of 16-45 FG in the paint - a ridiculous 35.5% FG! To make things worse, the referees of that game allowed it to be extremely physical and Denver had just 11 free throw attempts the whole game, even though they are generally one of the teams with more free throw attempts per game.
In my opinion, I believe Jrue Holliday is the best defensive PG in the league and he showed it against Ty Lawson, who struggled badly during the game and even ended the first quarter scoreless. Denver played without their best outside shooter in Danilo Gallinari and with Philadelphia putting so much focus on the inside, the Nuggets had some space on the outside, but they just weren't effective by shooting 4-18 3pts.
Basically, Philadelphia proved to be a tough matchup for Denver, but this loss doesn't chance the fact that Denver is indeed a good team. Fortunately for them, they will face Orlando tonight, one of the best possible matchups for Denver and therefore, I expect a huge bounce back game for the Nuggets tonight.
Philadelphia is a great defensive perimeter team led by Jrue Holliday, who could limit Ty Lawson and Andre Iguodala, while the fact that they have defensive system that prevents easy shots down low stopped Kenneth Faried from having a good game: 3-9 FG in 17 minutes. But what about Orlando?
Well, they have Jameer Nelson and Hedo Turkoglu on the perimeter, two guys who are far from being athletic enough, in order to stop the Denver's guards. Can you imagine Jameer Nelson and Hedo Turkoglu running back to defense in pursuit of Ty Lawson and Andre Iguodala? Well, good luck with that!
To make things worse, Orlando's frontcourt has Glen Davis and the unproved sophomore Nikola Vucevic. Both Gustavo Ayon and Al Harrington are out for tonight and so, in some moments of tonight's game, Glen Davis will be the team's starting center. So, how will Orlando prevent Denver from getting easy points in the paint? Well, they won't!
Orlando will be inevitably one of this season's lowly teams and tonight's matchup completely exposes all their weaknesses: lack of athleticism on the wings and lack of defensive paint protection, now that Dwight Howard is gone. Denver should make a bounce back tonight on a great matchup for them and so, I'll be taking the Nuggets in here.
ADDED: With Danilo Gallinari being probable for tonight, Denver's outside shooting will be even better and therefore, I expect this game to be a fast paced game with the Nuggets have a huge offensive line, so I came up with a totals line of 200 points and I'll be taking the Over in here.