The NBA season is right around the corner and the Denver Nuggets 2013 NBA Championship Odds are currently at 66-1 ($100 bet pays $6800). They are 33-1 to win the Western Conference and their over/under season win total projection is 49,5. Below is the overall season preview by Pregame Pro André Gomes. 

2011-12 Regular Season Numbers:

The Nuggets were last season one of the main outsiders in the Western Conference, mostly thanks to having a lot of depth on their roster. The fact that they had a lot of quality players on a season where the schedule was physically brutal was one of the Nuggets’ biggest strengths, but the truth is that they had a very inconsistent regular season.

Denver Nuggets month-by-month record:

Denver was always an excellent offensive team during the whole season, with the problem residing on their defense. Between February and March, the Nuggets were a mediocre team who couldn’t have a 0.500 record and the main motive for these struggles was the nonexistence of any kind of defense, as they average +110 defensive ratings in those two months.

In the middle of the season, GM Masai Ujiri regretted the contract he had offered to Nene Hilario in the offseason and traded him to Washington in exchange for JaVale McGee. The goal of this trade was more to get rid of Nene’s new contract than to actually improve the team’s quality, as McGee isn’t surely a better player than Nene.

In the playoffs, the Nuggets went to the Game 7 in the first round against the Lakers. After winning a big game in LA to avoid being eliminated in 5 games, they eventually lost the series in the final minutes of the 7^th game.

Offseason moves 2012-13:

GM Masai Ujiri apparently regretted his offseason moves from the previous season and after getting rid of Nene Hilario to Washington, he didn’t have problems in doing the same with Arron Afflalo.

However, this time Ujiri traded Afflalo in the perspective of getting an even better player in exchange. Denver took advantage of the “Howard soap opera” and the fact that the 76ers wanted Bynum to get themselves in the mix of those deals and thanks to that, they were able to get Andre Iguodala.

Also Al Harrington, Rudy Fernandez and Chris Andersen left the team, while the Nuggets chose Evan Fournier and Quincy Miller in the draft. JaVale McGee also signed a better contract, in a move from Ujiri to secure the long term future of the team.

Andre Iguodala’s Impact  

Andre Iguodala has been seen in the league as a poor man’s version of Lebron James: an all around player, who is an excellent defender, but who lacks the offensive talent to carry his team on his own. Over the last few seasons, not even the 76ers fans were looking at Iguodala with unanimous eyes about his value and it looks like that apparently the 76ers staff also felt the same, as they had no problems in trading him to get Andrew Bynum.

Iguodala was by far the most used player by Doug Collins and he had excellent all around numbers with 6.1 reb/game, 5.5 assists/game and 1.7 steals/game, while offensively, Iguodala had less importance by attempting just 10.2 FG/game – his lowest mark over the last six seasons!

In Denver, Iguodala will have better conditions to shine than he had in Philadelphia. The Nuggets play at a much faster pace than the Sixers and this will benefit Iguodala’s athleticism. Denver has more offensive talent in the perimeter than Philadelphia, so he won’t be “forced” to shoot like he was in Philadelphia and finally, Iguodala will also help the Nuggets in an area where they were horrible last season: in the defensive end!

An excellent backcourt

With the signing of Iguodala, the Nuggets will have an excellent backcourt with Ty Lawson and Danilo Gallinari, while also having a good depth in the bench with Andre Miller, Corey Brewer, rookie Evan Fournier and Wilson Chandler.

Lawson showed last season that he is a good PG. He improved in almost all his numbers in comparison to his first seasons in the league: minutes, points, assists, rebounds and steals. His speed is astonishing and the aggressive way he attacks the basket and is also to finalize at the rim is impressive: he attempted almost 5 FGA’s at the rim last season and managed to shoot 62.8% FG from this area! For this season, I expect the same from Lawson, as I watched Coach George Karl requiring even more aggressiveness from Lawson in some moments of the past season.

On the other hand, Gallinari hasn’t been able to be the player the Nuggets were expecting him to be last season. Unfortunately, he had several physical issues, and due to that, he was able to play in just 43 games. Two seasons ago, when he was traded in the Carmelo Anthony deal, Gallinari surprised Denver for his ability in going to the free throw line with 7.2 FT/game. He had the reputation of having of a game exclusively based on the perimeter, so these were very promising numbers, but he wasn’t able to replicate these numbers last season. In my opinion, his physical limitations were determinant for his poor season, but with him being healthy this season, we can expect him to have a better offensive season this year.

Inexperienced Frontcourt

George Karl was perhaps too conservative with Kenneth Faried last season, as he played just 3 games between December and January. Faried was elected the third best rookie of the past season and even though he played just 22.5 minutes per game, he managed to have 10.2 points per game and 7.7 rebounds per game, while shooting 58.6% FG. Already in the last part of the season, there were no doubts about Faried’s value in such a way that in the playoff series against the Lakers, Faried played 27.4 min/games, while having three double-double games in 7 games against the very powerful frontcourt of the Lakers.

For the center position, George Karl has Timofey Mozgov, who is yet to show his true value in the league. Last season, with him on the court, the Nuggets were a worse team in both the offense and the defense, with this being the main reason why Mozgov lost importance on the team. However, Mozgov looks much more confident and a better player when he was for the Russian national team, so it’s all up to George Karl to work with him psychologically to have him play in Denver like he plays for the Russian national team. 

The question mark of the frontcourt will be JaVale Mcgee. He signed a new contract for the next four seasons, so it’s clear that the Nuggets believe on his potential. His problem, as we all know, is his inability of using his potential, while being involved in some very “funny” moments when he was playing in Washington. In the series against the Lakers, there were moments where McGee was excellent and if he is capable of becoming a consistent player, then the Nuggets will be well served on the frontcourt as well.

Final Thoughts

Just like it happened last season, the Nuggets will be once again one of the most dangerous teams in the West.

Fortunately, George Karl won’t be able to use his “fetish player” in the clutch moments of the games: Al Harrington! His insistence is simultaneously using Lawson, Miller and Harrington in long periods of time in the 4^th quarter was in my opinion harmful for the team, especially on the defensive end, but this won’t happen this season as Harrington is now in Orlando so Karl will have to work on better ways when compared to the last season.

If Faried and McGee keep developing and Gallinari has a healthy season, then the Nuggets will have an excellent starting lineup that can cause problems to any team in the league. It won’t be easy to play in Denver due to the Nuggets’ athleticism and we are in front of a team that should be playing to get homecourt advantage for the first round of the playoffs.

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter @GomesCapper

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