Game 1 of the NBA Finals takes place on Tuesday night as the Miami Heat travel to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder. The game is scheduled for a 9:00 pm start time and it will be televised live on ABC. Currently the odds have Oklahoma City favored by 5 points with the total sitting at 195.5 points for the contest.
Free Analysis: The two No. 2 seeds in their conference will meet in the NBA Finals starting Tuesday in Oklahoma City when the favored Thunder host the Heat. These teams are very evenly-matched as Miami has 58 wins (42 ATS), outscoring opponents by 6.4 PPG, while Oklahoma City has won 59 games (45 ATS) with a 6.2 PPG margin. These teams met twice this season with each club winning on its home floor. Oklahoma City is 12-3 SU during these playoffs, including a stellar 10-2-1 ATS in the past 13 contests. Miami isn’t too far behind at 12-6 SU (11-7 ATS) in this postseason. The big difference between these clubs is team defense. Miami allows just 91.6 PPG (89.0 PPG at home) this season, while Oklahoma City gives up 96.7 PPG. Although both teams have their three star players, the most important player on the floor will likely be Heat PF Chris Bosh. Miami was 42-15 (74%) in the regular season with Bosh, and just 4-5 without him. And in the playoffs, the Heat are 6-1 (all double-digit wins) when their All-Star power forward logs 20+ minutes, and just 6-5 when he does not. When Miami’s Big Three of Bosh, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade are all on the court at the same time, Miami is outscoring opponents by 16.9 PPG (per 48 minutes) in the postseason. With two of the Heat stars on the court, that number is still a robust +9.9 PPG. Although the Thunder’s Big Three of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden have won by 18.5 PPG (per 48 minutes) in the playoffs when all three are on the court simultaneously, when one of them sits, the opponents have outscored Oklahoma City. Both teams are loaded with stars as Miami’s LeBron James and Oklahoma City’s Kevin Durant finished 1-2 in the regular season MVP voting. Both players have been outstanding in the 2012 playoffs with James averaging 30.8 PPG (51% FG), 9.6 RPG and 5.1 APG, while Durant has poured in 27.8 PPG (51% FG), 7.9 RPG and 4.2 APG. While many expect both MVP candidates to shine, it’s uncertain what to expect from Thunder PG Russell Westbrook, who is shooting just 43.6% FG during the playoffs and made only 31.0% FG versus the Heat during the regular season. Heat SG Dwyane Wade is shooting just 39.7% FG in his past four games, but he’s still posting a well-rounded 22.9 PPG, 5.0 RPG and 4.1 APG during the postseason. Although Miami is 5-2 SU in its past seven trips to Oklahoma City, the Thunder have been perfect at Chesapeake Energy Arena during these playoffs. They are 8-0 SU (5-3 ATS) in these home games with 102.6 PPG on 48.4% FG (36.4% threes) and 84.3% FT. Only once have they allowed a visitor to reach 100 points on their home floor. Miami is a mediocre 4-4 (SU and ATS) on the road this postseason, but it crushed the Celtics 98-79 in its last road game in Boston.
Free Pick: Were gonna look to the Under in this one. The Thunder are known for their offense, but this team has played good defense in the playoffs, especially at home where they have allowed just 92 ppg. The Thunder have scored 102+ points in each of their last 5 games, but this Miami team has played great defense this year as they have allowed just 91.6 ppg overall and they have allowed more than 94 points just twice in these playoffs, with 1 of those games being an overtime game. The Heat averaged over 100 points on the year, but during the playoffs they have averaged just 91 ppg overall, including just 91.9 ppg on the road. The Thunder may look to run here, but Miami has the young athletes needed to get back on defense, while on the other side, Miami isn't really a running team and will not push the pace here. As high scoring as both teams have been this year the defenses will steal the show as this one is played in the 190's at best.
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NBA Free Picks: Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder - Game 1
What NBA Title bettors need to know about Heat at Thunder Game 1 - Including a free best bet from Pregame.com's Scott Spreitzer & Bryan Leonard!