Resident NASCAR betting expert SIG breaks down the odds, picks and betting tips for the Daytona 500. Good morning race fans, welcome to the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship Season. Once again, I’ll be front row to bring you every week of the 36 week race season absolutely free and exclusively here at Pregame.com. I am again very excited about what is in store for this season, and of course today especially for the Super Bowl of Stock Car Racing the 54th annual running of the Daytona 500.
I need to take a moment for those of you who are coming into my threads for the very first time to discuss a few items. First, I am an industry expert at betting on NASCAR and my work at here at Pregame and previously Let It Ride Sports speaks for itself. Second, I have a very precise proven method to betting the Iron Ponies, and I will explain in detail in next paragraph how to properly manage your bankroll throughout the NSCS Season while betting on each race. Third, there are some very fine and experienced handicappers in the forum so you are at the right place to get the best betting information to help you win this year. Finally thank you, for coming into my threads each week and showing your confidence in my ability to prognosticate at this sport the goal, as it is every season, is a 25% return on our bankroll.
Money Management: each race week I will provide a complete detailed card that consists of Win Bets, Long Shot bets and a series of Head to Head bets. Each Category of bets I have established a precise allowable betting percentage of risk against my personal bankroll. I suggest that it is a must to establish a season bankroll to wager with and properly grade against. I also highly suggest following along with the entire card, as I have fine tuned my method of risk exposure, and hedging opportunities to minimize risk for any given race day. For Win bets the maximum allowable risk on any one race is 3% of season bankroll. Now, that doesn’t mean that I will wager that each week, but it is my allowable max. For Long Shot Win bets, a driver must be > or = to +1500 to be placed in this category, and the max allowable risk each week is .30% of my bankroll. and Finally on the HTH’s the max risk exposure is 8.6% of my annual bankroll spread across various HTH match ups. The Star rating or indicator really don’t mean much accept perspective, the key is to follow the recommended betting percentages. As always any questions you are more than welcome to discuss or inquire about.
Here we go boys boogity boogity...if today’s race is anything like the Trucks and Nationwide races then we better get prepared for another crazy finish at Daytona. I really like the Roush Boys and I actually bumped two of them out of the long shot category into my win column because their odds are juicy low lying fruit. Toyota is having trouble this week despite Kyle’s performance in the Bud Shootout. I’ve always had success here at Daytona and I really feel that this a sweet card today. This will be one of the only races that the bookmakers will be willing to post the HTH’s early so I got this out asap, usually they don’t post odds until 11:30 ET for a 1:00 race giving us very little time to analyze the numbers, but again I am keen to the match ups and always have set my odds on Saturdays waiting for the book’s number to find value to my number. I will be grading all year against the Bookmaker/Betcris line, but suggest a better number at The Greek, Bovada, or 5Dimes for the best futures numbers.
Today I am pressing only in the Long Shot column adding Denny Hamlin for an additional .15% of season bankroll, but I have kept my win bets to a reasonable 1.583% of the bankroll. In the HTH’s a very risky day at Daytona and I am at 6.88% so about 80% of my allowable there. In future write ups I will discuss more about the race and some technical info, but today needed to get the basis of money management expressed. We just need to avoid the Big One, have no mechanical issues today, and we’ll be fine with this card. I wish you all the very best and I’ll see you next Sunday from Phoenix for the Subway Fresh Fit 500. Thanks again for stopping in!
DAYTONA 500 Preview:
Site: Daytona International Speedway, Daytona, Florida
Track: 2.5 -mile Banked Tri-Oval
Annual: 54th
Television: Fox
Start Time: 1:30 p.m. (ET)
Defending Champion: Trevor Bayne
Runner-up: Carl Edwards
To Win:
½* Tony Stewart (+800), or .5% of season bankroll
½* Dale Earnhardt Jr (+750), or .5% of season bankroll
?* Greg Biffle (+2500), or .333% of season bankroll
¼* Matt Kenseth (+2500), or .25% of season bankroll
Long Shot to Win:
3* The Field (+1800), or 30% of 1% (0.30%) of season bankroll
1½* Denny Hamlin (+2000), or 15% of 1% (.15%) of season bankroll
Head to Head:
3* G Biffle (-125) over J Logano, or risking 2.58% of season bankroll
2* T Stewart (-145) over J Johnson, or risking 1.72% of season bankroll
2* Ku Busch (-115) over C Bowyer, or risking 1.72% of season bankroll
1* M Truex Jr (+105) over M Martin, or risking .86% of season bankroll