A look at the New York Giants finds it to be a tale of two seasons. Using this information will help us handicap some free Super Bowl Props and provide you with some betting tips for Sunday. Until five games ago, they were struggling with the worst running game in the NFL who averaged just 89/3.5 for the season. And the defense was certainly taking its lumps for the year, it was a NE-like 376 defensive yards, 5.9 YP play and 25 PPG. They battled key injuries the entire season. But a return to health has seen the G-men enter this game on a 5-0 SUATS run. They defeated the Jets, the Cowboys, and the Falcons, all on their home field, to get the right to play at defending champion Green Bay. Their victories in those contests were by 15, 17, 22, and 17 points. They followed it up with a three point win at San Fran for their spot in the Super Bowl. Their now healthy defense allowed just 13 PPG in those wins.
Now they enter this Super Bowl in their preferred underdog role again. Under QB Manning, the Giants are now 6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS on the road in playoff games. These wins came all as underdog, a role in which the G-men stand 7-2 ATS this season. The offense is led by QB Manning, who passed for just shy of 5,000 yards and tossed 29 TD passes. He has a receiving corps who should thrive on deep routes against the suspect NE defense. Though they were outrushed by the Niners 150-85, there is no question that the improved health of their runners Bradshaw and Jacobs, lead a far improved infantry attack.
The team with the greatest late season momentum is often a key indicator of Super Bowl success. Though NE enters on a 10-game win streak, it is arguably more impressive that the Giants enter on a 5-0 SUATS run against the tougher schedule. On the basis of that momentum, it would normally be a very easy call to back the Giants in their highly successful underdog role. But do you really want to fade the NE pedigree in a Championship game? My advice on this play: A small play on the New York Giants.
I do, however, envision a profit on this game with an OVER / UNDER selection as well as some proposition plays which result from my thinking. The opening line of 55 has dropped as low as 53. I believe there is value in the OVER in this contest. The perfect conditions of the inside venue can only be seen as a contributing factor. As implied from the analysis above each of these teams should have great success throwing the football. They have experienced QBs in Brady and Manning. Each has a deep receiving group capable of breaking the big play. And each has suspect secondaries. The line maker confirmed as much when the projected yards to QB Manning is 311 PY, and the projected passing yards for QB Brady are 316. That projected total of 627 yards alone could get this game over the total. And that doesn’t even include the yardage on the ground, from special teams, or on potential defensive scores. In short, I expect a high-scoring game with a pair of prolific offenses playing in perfect conditions against a pair of defenses that have proven they can be burned. Make your stronger play in this game on the OVER.
With my analysis concluding that this will be a more wide open game, I would also suggest small plays, for those of you who want more action, on the following propositions. Here are a few of my favorite Super Bowl Prop picks:
- OVER 23 ½ completions NYG
- OVER 25 ½ completions NEP
- OVER 3 ½ total sacks
- OVER 1 total fumbles lost
Superbowl Betting Props - Giants vs Patriots
Host Marco D'Angelo and Pregame Pro Scott Spreitzer discuss the value in the kicking props due to indoor game and Patriot zone creates opportunities for unique running game props.