Hawaii’s football program has been accused of point-shaving. We dig into the data to examine the allegations. Signs of point shaving?1) Record against the spread. Teams that point-shave lose ATS.Hawaii’s ATS Record: 3-7-1 (0-5-1 last 6 games)2) Big money bet against team in question.More money bet ON Hawaii: 4 timesMore money bet AGAINST Hawaii: 6 timesEqual money bet: 1 time3) Big money wins high percentage of the timeBig Money record: 4 winners, 5 losers (1 push), (once equal money)4) When big money bet against team, team losses ATS.Big money against Hawaii moved the line 3-points or more FOUR TIMES. Big bettors fading Hawaii won 3 times, lost 0 times, and pushed 1 time.Most suspicious game:Lost by 20 points as a 17-point favorite at UNLV.Favorites of 17 or more have won 217 of 226 games this season.Of the big 9 favorites who lost, Hawaii only one to lose by more than 7-points.Conclusion: Data does not support rampant game fixing. (Consider that Pregame.com reporting uncovered that big bettors won 15 straight games during the Tim Donaghy scandal). Yet, the data is not inconsistent with targeted point shaving in a handful of games.Game-by-Game data9/3/2011hosting ColoradoWorldwide open: Hawaii -8.5 (5 Dimes)Monday line: Hawaii -7Closing line: Hawaii -7Opening Money Line: Hawaii -285/Colorado +225Closing Money Line: Hawaii -255/Colorado +215Result: Hawaii won 34-17 (ATS win)9/10/2011at WashingtonWorldwide open: Washington -1 (Wynn)Monday line: Washington -3.5Closing line: Washington -4.5Opening Money Line: Washington -235/Hawaii +210Closing Money Line: Washington -190/Hawaii +170Result: Hawaii lost 32-40 (ATS loss)9/17/2011at UNLVWorldwide open: Hawaii -17 (Wynn)Monday line: Hawaii -19.5Closing line: Hawaii -17Opening Money Line: Hawaii -1050/UNLV +800Closing Money Line: Hawaii -770/UNLV +620 Result: Hawaii lost 20-40 (ATS loss)
9/24/2011hosting Cal-DavisWorldwide open: Hawaii -23.5 (CRIS)Monday line: N/A, line opened after Monday.Closing line: Hawaii -27Opening Money Line: Hawaii -3000/Cal-Davis +1500Closing Money Line: -3600/Cal-Davis +1800Result: Hawaii win 56-14 (ATS win)10/1/2011at La TechWorldwide open: La Tech -2.5 (Wynn)Monday line: La Tech -3.5Closing line: La Tech -5Opening Money Line: La Tech -172/Hawaii +155Closing Money Line: La Tech -190/Hawaii +170Result: Hawaii won 44-26 (ATS win)10/14/2011at San Jose StateWorldwide open: Hawaii -6 (Wynn)Monday line: Hawaii -6.5Closing line: Hawaii -6Opening Money Line: Hawaii -215/San Jose State +190Closing Money Line: Hawaii -215/San Jose State +190Result: Hawaii lost 27-28 (ATS loss)10/22/2011hosting New Mexico StateWorldwide open: Hawaii -22 (Wynn)Monday line: Hawaii -22Closing line: Hawaii -23.5Opening Money Line: Hawaii -1250/New Mexico State +920Closing Money Line: Hawaii -1450/New Mexico State +1025Result: Hawaii win 45-34 (ATS loss)
10/29/2011at IdahoWorldwide open: Hawaii -11 (Wynn)Monday line: Hawaii -8Closing line: Hawaii -7Opening Money Line: Hawaii -275/Idaho +245Closing Money Line: Hawaii -280/Idaho +250Result: Hawaii win 16-14 (ATS loss)11/5/2011hosting Utah StateWorldwide open: Hawaii -7.5 (Wynn)Monday line: Hawaii -3.5Closing line: Hawaii -4Opening Money Line: Hawaii -170/Utah State +155Closing Money Line: Hawaii -175/Utah State +160Result: Hawaii lost 31-35 (ATS loss)11/12/2011at Nevada Worldwide open: Nevada -10 (Wynn)Monday line: Nevada -13Closing line: Nevada -14Opening Money Line: Nevada -635/Hawaii +525Closing Money Line: Nevada -525/Hawaii +440Result: Hawaii lost 28-42 (ATS push)
11/19/2011hosting Fresno StateWorldwide open: Hawaii -4 (Wynn)Monday line: Hawaii -5.5Closing line: Hawaii -4.5Opening Money Line: Hawaii -210/Fresno +190Closing Money Line: Hawaii -190/Fresno +170Result: Hawaii lost 21-24 (ATS loss) Sports Betting - Is It Fixed?Pregame's own Johnny Detroit discusses with Vegas Runner the past situations where sports betting was fixed and also discuss the inevitable question of "Is Sports Betting Fixed?"