Hawaii’s football program has been accused of point-shaving. We dig into the data to examine the allegations.

Signs of point shaving?

1) Record against the spread. Teams that point-shave lose ATS.
Hawaii’s ATS Record: 3-7-1 (0-5-1 last 6 games)

2) Big money bet against team in question.
More money bet ON Hawaii: 4 times
More money bet AGAINST Hawaii: 6 times
Equal money bet: 1 time

3) Big money wins high percentage of the time
Big Money record: 4 winners, 5 losers (1 push), (once equal money)

4) When big money bet against team, team losses ATS.
Big money against Hawaii moved the line 3-points or more FOUR TIMES. Big bettors fading Hawaii won 3 times, lost 0 times, and pushed 1 time.

Most suspicious game:
Lost by 20 points as a 17-point favorite at UNLV.
Favorites of 17 or more have won 217 of 226 games this season.
Of the big 9 favorites who lost, Hawaii only one to lose by more than 7-points.

Conclusion: Data does not support rampant game fixing. (Consider that Pregame.com reporting uncovered that big bettors won 15 straight games during the Tim Donaghy scandal). Yet, the data is not inconsistent with targeted point shaving in a handful of games.

Game-by-Game data


9/3/2011
hosting Colorado

Worldwide open:  Hawaii -8.5 (5 Dimes)
Monday line: Hawaii -7
Closing line: Hawaii -7
Opening Money Line: Hawaii -285/Colorado +225
Closing Money Line: Hawaii -255/Colorado +215
Result: Hawaii won 34-17 (ATS win)

9/10/2011
at Washington

Worldwide open:  Washington -1 (Wynn)
Monday line: Washington -3.5
Closing line: Washington -4.5
Opening Money Line:  Washington -235/Hawaii +210
Closing Money Line:  Washington -190/Hawaii +170
Result: Hawaii lost 32-40 (ATS loss)

9/17/2011
at UNLV

Worldwide open:  Hawaii -17 (Wynn)
Monday line: Hawaii -19.5
Closing line: Hawaii -17
Opening Money Line: Hawaii -1050/UNLV +800
Closing Money Line: Hawaii -770/UNLV +620
Result: Hawaii lost 20-40 (ATS loss)

9/24/2011
hosting Cal-Davis

Worldwide open:  Hawaii -23.5 (CRIS)
Monday line: N/A, line opened after Monday.
Closing line: Hawaii -27
Opening Money Line: Hawaii -3000/Cal-Davis +1500
Closing Money Line: -3600/Cal-Davis +1800
Result: Hawaii win 56-14 (ATS win)

10/1/2011
at La Tech

Worldwide open: La Tech -2.5 (Wynn)
Monday line: La Tech -3.5
Closing line: La Tech -5
Opening Money Line: La Tech -172/Hawaii +155
Closing Money Line: La Tech -190/Hawaii +170
Result: Hawaii won 44-26 (ATS win)

10/14/2011
at San Jose State

Worldwide open:  Hawaii -6 (Wynn)
Monday line: Hawaii -6.5
Closing line: Hawaii -6
Opening Money Line: Hawaii -215/San Jose State +190
Closing Money Line: Hawaii -215/San Jose State +190
Result: Hawaii lost 27-28 (ATS loss)

10/22/2011
hosting New Mexico State

Worldwide open:  Hawaii -22 (Wynn)
Monday line: Hawaii -22
Closing line: Hawaii -23.5
Opening Money Line: Hawaii -1250/New Mexico State +920
Closing Money Line: Hawaii -1450/New Mexico State +1025
Result: Hawaii win 45-34 (ATS loss)

10/29/2011
at Idaho

Worldwide open:  Hawaii -11 (Wynn)
Monday line: Hawaii -8
Closing line: Hawaii -7
Opening Money Line: Hawaii -275/Idaho +245
Closing Money Line: Hawaii -280/Idaho +250
Result: Hawaii win 16-14 (ATS loss)

11/5/2011
hosting Utah State

Worldwide open:  Hawaii -7.5 (Wynn)
Monday line: Hawaii -3.5
Closing line: Hawaii -4
Opening Money Line: Hawaii -170/Utah State +155
Closing Money Line: Hawaii -175/Utah State +160
Result: Hawaii lost 31-35 (ATS loss)

11/12/2011
at Nevada

Worldwide open:  Nevada -10 (Wynn)
Monday line: Nevada -13
Closing line: Nevada -14
Opening Money Line: Nevada -635/Hawaii +525
Closing Money Line: Nevada -525/Hawaii +440
Result: Hawaii lost 28-42 (ATS push)

11/19/2011
hosting Fresno State

Worldwide open:  Hawaii -4 (Wynn)
Monday line: Hawaii -5.5
Closing line: Hawaii -4.5
Opening Money Line: Hawaii -210/Fresno +190
Closing Money Line: Hawaii -190/Fresno +170
Result: Hawaii lost 21-24 (ATS loss)

Movie Sports Betting - Is It Fixed?
Pregame's own Johnny Detroit discusses with Vegas Runner the past situations where sports betting was fixed and also discuss the inevitable question of "Is Sports Betting Fixed?"