Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (odds -3) Start Time 1:00PM: In the ebb and flow of the NFL, we can only side with the reversal from last week's results. The combination of the return of RB McGahee and the wheels of QB Tebow led to Denver outrushing Oakland 298-100 in their 38-24 upset of the Raiders last week. Teams who outrush their opponent by 30+ yards are now 66-22 ATS (75%) this season, right on the 76% ATS record this millennium. (1460-461 ATS). In the last five weeks, this record is 40-6 ATS. But the Broncos real advantage in that upset was a +3 in the net TO column. Teams who are +3 net TO for the game are now 16-1 ATS this season, and 592-47 ATS this millennium. That translates to a 93% chance for point spread success. While the Broncos were succeeding on the road, the Chiefs came flat at home vs previously winless Miami. They fell 31-3 despite the yardage and TOs being virtually equal. There was low motivation because of four consecutive wins including an MNF home win vs division rival San Diego the previous week. Expect the "bounce" from a KC team that will be highly motivated to make amends for that performance in their third consecutive home game. For Denver, they look for consecutive road upsets while playing their third road game in four weeks. Huge situational edge to the home team Chiefs.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (odds -3) Start Time4:15PM: Detroit is still getting a lot of public love for their 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS start in which they've covered by +64 net points. They enter this game on a 17-7 ATS run since the start of last year. That includes 8-1-1 ATS away. When last we left them, before their bye week, they were beating the Broncos 45-10 despite being outrushed 195-113 by Denver. And that's where the recent issues have been for Detroit who again find RB Best doubtful for this contest. Since he led them to 181 yards overland vs Chicago five weeks ago, Detroit has been mauled at the point of attack. In their last three games, they have been outrushed 527-283. For the season they are now allowing 138/5.2. That does not bode well against a Chicago team who, after an abysmal start at the point of attack, has reversed their fortunes. In the last three weeks, against decent competition including Phila, T. Bay and Minnesota, they have outrushed their opponents 460-202. It has improved their YTD stats to 121 / 2.8 overland. Coming off the MNF upset of Phila is a downer that is offset by the 24-13 revenge emotive from week #5. Major potential for a hidden STEAMROLLER.
Baltimore Ravens (odds -6 1/2) at Seattle Seahawks Start Time 4:05PM: Expect the roller coaster ride to continue for the Ravens. Following the week #1 victory against Pittsburgh, they came flat at Tennessee in a 26-13 loss. After home wins vs the Jets and Houston, they lost 12-7 at Jax on MNF. That was followed by a 30-27 narrow comeback win against an Arizona team that did not motivate them. In short, in 7/8 games, they have played to the level of competition. Now it's time for another downer following their Sunday night comeback SNF victory to sweep the rival Steelers. Seahawks have one of the biggest home road dichotomies in the league, now standing 8-4 ATS on their home field under HC Carroll. The upset would be no surprise to this bureau.
Free Picks: Steelers at Bengals Betting
Are Bengals Fraudulant and Steelers Success versus Ohio Teams plus other factors NFL bettors need to know about Steelers at Bengals (Sunday, November 13, 2011) from Pregame.com - Including predictions from Marco D'Angelo and analysis from host RJ Bell.