Michigan State at Nebraska (odds -4 ½) Start Time: Noon ESPN: If you are a reader of this Midweek Moneymaker Pointspread Prognosis, you will note that this is one of your homework games. You are asked to analyze the teams that pulled an upset as +7 or more last week and decide whether those teams would continue their MOMENTUM or suffer the dreaded LET DOWN. Anyone who witnessed the Spartans post game celebration following their Hail Mary touchdown pass to beat Wisconsin, will surely opt for LET DOWN.  But your job was to include a search for value and an analysis of fundamentals. That would lead you directly to Michigan State in the role of under dog.  Behind rock solid, experienced QB Cousins, the Spartans have the better balanced offense. And there is no question that a defense that allows 14 PPG and just 223 yards is far superior to that of Nebraska.  Though the victory against Wisconsin left them the only team in the Legends division with an undefeated league mark, the outcome of this game will clearly determine the front runner for that honor. I am well aware that Nebraska qualifies as part of our group of teams with which we will find value via negative ATS results (see opening article and accompanying 13-4 ATS record).  But the combination of State’s 6-1 ATS record and Nebraska’s 2-5 ATS record has resulted in a +96 AFP for the Spartans.  Free College Football Pick: As such, one can only consider Michigan State to be the value side in this contest at this price.  In short, prefer the statistical profile and the value over the technical and situational aspect of the game.

Wake Forest at North Carolina (odds -7)Start Time  3:30PM ESPNU: The Tarheels come off an embarrassing performance last Saturday. In a 59-38 loss to Clemson they committed a whopping 6 turnovers.  That’s more than Wake Forest has committed the entire season.  It’s in no small part a reason why the Deacons are a surprising 5-2 SUATS (+28 AFP and stand 4-1 in the ACC standings). As such, the Tarheels will be highly motivated. Though they too have 5 wins for the season, they enter /BBL, just 3-5 ATS and 1-3 SU in league play.  That has led to a serious reduction in price and puts them squarely on our list of NEGATIVE ATS RESULT TEAMS.  These teams have gone 13-4 ATS, L2W (see the article at the beginning of this week’s newsletter).  As such, we side with the Tarheels at home against a Wake team who is just 2-7 ATS away MRT.  It’s a negative for the visitor that they blew a 17-0 lead at Duke last week, yet still emerged with a not so impressive 24-23 win in which they were out rushed and out passed by Duke who had a 38-21 clock advantage.

 Free Picks: Florida vs Georgia - Best Bet from Bryan Leonard- Florida offense underrated based on recent opposition and last four meetings would have surpassed current total plus other factors college football bettors need to know about Florida vs Georgia (Saturday, October 29, 2011) from Pregame.com - Including free Best Bet from Bryan Leonard and analysis from host Marco D'Angelo.